Soccer betting goes beyond placing wagers on the most valuable markets. It’s more about noticing the value of those bets by examining the overall odds.
Analyzing value bets means reviewing how a bookmaker’s odds are higher than the true probability of an event occurring in a match-up.
Calculating value bets while you are about to place a bet on Novibet could give you a competitive advantage with wagering activities. Betting is a mixture of analyzing data, calculating probability, and luck!
What Is A Value Bet?
A value bet is based on this formula:
Value = (Odds×Probability)−1
If the calculation of this formula is more than 0, it’s considered a value bet.
For example, if you believe one team has a 50% chance of claiming victory with odds of 2.00, but the bookmaker marks their odds as 2.20, this is considered a value bet.
Understanding Implied Probability
Bookmakers’ betting odds are set according to implied probability. Whether you are examining decimal odds or fractional odds, there are formulas to convert them into likelihood so that you can calculate whether it’s a value bet or not.
To see if a decimal odds bet has value, complete this formula: Probability = (1/Odds) ×100
Convert fractional odds into an implied probability numeric number by completing this formula: Probability = [Denominator / (Denominator+Numerator)]×100
After calculating the probability of the bet happening based on the bookmakers’ implied probability, if it is higher than the formula’s answer, this would be considered a value bet.
For example, if an implied probability is 2.50, solving the formula would look like this:
(1/250) x 100 = 40%
In this case, if you think that the team has more than a 40% chance of this particular wager coming true, there’s value in it to where you may be more encouraged to place the wager.
Conduct a Personal Probability Assessment
Even after all those mathematical calculations before placing a wager, do not be fully convinced of this being a value bet until you conduct a personal probability assessment. This involves analyzing historical data to achieve an overall scope of what you believe is the probability of a specific event happening in a match-up based on how a team performed in the past.
Examine team form, which involves whether they won or lost the most recent 5 matchups. How did the players perform individually, and how did they work together?
If the teams in the current match-up went against each other in the past, analyze their head-to-head record. Did a specific team dominate the other, or were their matchups evenly matched with an almost equal amount of wins and losses? Note which team has the better offense to increase their goal count and which one has the better defense to protect their goal.
Other ways you can gather data to conduct a personal probability assessment include:
- Learning about the most recent injuries and suspensions that could alter team form.
- The home and away advantage has higher probabilities of the home team succeeding.
- The different tactical matchups are based on which players are participating.
- How motivated or fatigued players are during the match could affect their performance.
Compare Your Odds with Bookmakers’ Odds
Once you have estimated the team’s true probability, it is time to convert this into decimal odds using this formula:
Fair Odds = 1 / Your Probability Estimate
Once you get the number from this formula, compare it with the bookmakers’ odds. If you see that the bookmakers’ odds are greater than the fair odds, this is considered a value bet.
Let’s say your probability estimate is that the team has a 60% chance of winning. Therefore, the fair odds would be calculated by doing 1 / 0.6, which equals 1.66. If a bookmaker is offering 2.00 instead, this means there’s value in this bet.
