The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the US-Israel war on Iran, is sending economic shockwaves far beyond the Middle East, and Ghana is among the African economies feeling the strain most acutely.
Brent crude prices surpassed $100 per barrel on 8 March 2026 for the first time in four years, rising to $126 at the peak, in what analysts have described as the largest oil supply disruption since the 1970s energy crisis and the largest in the history of the global oil market. The narrow waterway carries roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply some 20 million barrels and its effective closure has left hundreds of tankers stranded and sent fuel costs climbing across the globe.
Goldman Sachs has suggested that elevated prices could persist through 2027, even as Iran continues to threaten a complete and indefinite shutdown of the strait unless its terms are met.
For Ghana, the consequences are direct. Despite being an oil producer, the country remains heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products. Fuel imports accounted for approximately 29 percent of Ghana’s total import bill in 2025, meaning global price swings are transmitted almost immediately into the domestic economy.
As of mid-March 2026, Brent had risen 13 percent since the war began. Diesel prices surged by as much as 25 percent in major economies, with the weighted average in the European Union rising by 20 percent. For Ghanaian households, transport fare increases have followed swiftly, with food prices under pressure as distribution costs climb.
The cedi faces additional strain. Higher fuel import bills increase demand for US dollars, widening Ghana’s trade deficit at a time when the economy is still recovering from a period of fiscal consolidation under its International Monetary Fund programme. While crude oil export revenues may rise for Ghana’s upstream sector, the net effect of higher import costs typically outweighs the gain for a net refined-product importer.
A full disruption lasting two quarters could reduce global real GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, with effects rippling through fertiliser production, aviation and industrial supply chains. For African countries dependent on imported fuel and petrochemical inputs, including fertilisers, food production costs face added pressure at a moment of already fragile food security.
Even spare oil production capacity held by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates offers limited relief, as most of it sits on the wrong side of the strait, with pipeline alternatives able to carry only about five million of the 20 million barrels per day normally transiting the waterway.
The crisis has renewed calls for emerging economies, including Ghana, to accelerate domestic refinery investment and reduce exposure to global fuel import shocks. Ghana’s Tema Oil Refinery has historically operated below capacity, leaving the country structurally vulnerable to precisely this kind of external disruption.
The International Energy Agency has authorised the release of 400 million barrels of emergency reserves from member countries in a bid to stabilise markets, but the agency’s executive director was clear that the most effective solution remains restoring physical transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Until that happens, every spike in global oil prices will continue to arrive, with minimal delay, at Ghana’s pumps, markets and household budgets.
