Ghana’s next fuel pricing window, due in mid-March, is shaping up as the most consequential in over a year, caught between a global oil supply promise that cannot currently be delivered and a maritime chokepoint that has brought tanker traffic to a near standstill.
The crisis centres on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil and gas supply flows. Following coordinated US and Israeli military strikes on Iran last Friday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) broadcast warnings to vessels declaring the strait off-limits, prompting an immediate collapse in transit activity. Ship-tracking data from Kpler shows at least 40 very large crude carriers, each holding around two million barrels of oil, are now idling inside the Persian Gulf waiting for the security situation to clarify. Overall tanker transits through the strait fell to just four supertankers on Sunday, down from 22 the previous day.
Iran has not formally declared a blockade, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated publicly that closing the strait is not Teheran’s intention. However, the operational reality tells a different story. At least three vessels have been struck by missiles or drones near the waterway since the conflict escalated. Shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all transits. The Joint Maritime Information Center, a multinational naval advisory group, has raised its regional threat level to critical, its highest classification. Ships that do attempt passage risk attack with no clear indication of whether their flag or cargo offers any protection.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, responded on Sunday by agreeing to increase output by 206,000 barrels per day from April. The decision was framed as a stabilising move. Analysts, however, are sceptical about its near-term impact. Saudi Arabia can load tankers at its major terminals, but those tankers must still exit the Gulf through Hormuz to reach buyers. Output announcements do not move oil if the ships carrying that oil are anchored indefinitely in open Gulf waters.
Brent crude jumped approximately 10 percent in early trading on Sunday, briefly topping $80 per barrel. JPMorgan and Barclays analysts have warned that prices could spike to between $100 and $130 per barrel if supply disruptions prove prolonged. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) together hold roughly 2.5 million barrels per day in spare production capacity, which they have begun drawing on to cushion the shock. That buffer, while substantial, is finite. The more it is deployed to manage the current crisis, the less headroom remains if conditions worsen.
For Ghana, the timing is damaging. The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has already revised its floor prices upward for the March 1 to 15 window, with petrol moving from GH¢10.24 to GH¢10.46 per litre and diesel rising from GH¢11.34 to GH¢11.42. That revision was calculated before Brent crude broke above $80. The mid-March window, set to take effect on March 16, will be priced against benchmark levels that are now materially higher, and against a US dollar that has strengthened as investors seek safe-haven assets during the conflict. Since Ghana purchases refined petroleum products in dollars, a stronger dollar compounds every dollar-denominated price increase.
The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) projected on Sunday that petrol could retail between GH¢11.80 and GH¢13.00 per litre in the early March window, and diesel between GH¢12.73 and GH¢14.00 per litre. Those estimates were based on conditions before the latest surge in Brent crude. Should the Hormuz disruption persist through the first two weeks of March, the mid-month review could arrive under significantly different market conditions.
Analysts caution that the key variable is time. A short-lived standoff, particularly if US-Iran diplomatic channels reopen, could allow tanker traffic to resume before the next pricing review crystallises. A prolonged disruption offers no such relief, and its effects would ripple well beyond pump prices into transport fares, food distribution costs and broader inflation.
