The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately one third of globally traded seaborne fertiliser from international markets almost overnight, and analysts warn that Ghana, which imports all of its mineral fertiliser requirements and relies on Gulf supplies for urea and phosphates, faces a planting season squeeze that could reduce staple food crop yields well into 2027.
Global urea prices had risen nearly 26 percent by March 11, climbing from $465 per metric tonne before the war to $585, as the blockade cut off Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iran, which together account for approximately 49 percent of global urea exports and around 30 percent of global ammonia exports. Virtually all of those exports must transit the 21-mile passage between Iran and Oman that has been effectively closed since the United States and Israel launched strikes on February 28.
The disruption differs materially from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine fertiliser shock in both speed and scale. The earlier crisis gradually reduced roughly 15 to 20 percent of global fertiliser exports over several months, allowing importers to adjust. The Hormuz blockade removed approximately one third of seaborne trade almost immediately, and even if the strait reopens in the coming weeks, restarting production and transport logistics for fertilisers and their feedstocks could take several additional weeks, time that Northern Hemisphere farmers preparing fields for spring planting do not have.
Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) typically procures between 250,000 and 350,000 metric tonnes of fertiliser annually for distribution under the Feed Ghana programme, with the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) procuring an additional 100,000 metric tonnes each year for the cocoa sector. The country relies almost entirely on imported Nitrogen Phosphorus Potassium (NPK), urea and Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) compounds, importing the raw materials or finished blends through private importers and local blending plants with no domestic production of basic mineral fertiliser.
Sub-Saharan Africa is the region most exposed to the disruption. More than 90 percent of fertiliser consumed across the region is imported, mostly from outside the continent, and application rates average just 22 kilograms per hectare, among the lowest in the world. A price shock that forces farmers to reduce application rates will translate into lower yields for nitrogen-dependent cereals like maize, Ghana’s most widely grown staple, with the impact on food prices most acute six to twelve months after the planting disruption.
University of Texas research professor Raj Patel, whose work focuses on global food systems, said the Strait of Hormuz had effectively become as important to agriculture as it is to energy. “Sub-Saharan Africa is the most vulnerable region,” he told CNBC, pointing to the structural combination of import dependence, low income levels, and high food expenditure shares that make fertiliser price shocks particularly damaging for smallholder farmers.
Ghana has been developing a longer-term structural response to this vulnerability. Moroccan phosphate producer OCP Group is working with the Government of Ghana to construct an industrial fertiliser manufacturing complex that would combine Moroccan phosphorus inputs with Ghanaian natural gas to produce ammonia, urea, DAP and NPK domestically, which would directly reduce dependence on Gulf supply chains. That facility has not yet reached commercial production. Until it does, Ghana’s farmers remain fully exposed to the price and availability volatility that the Hormuz closure has introduced.
