Ghana’s next fuel pricing window, due on March 16, is facing its most pressured outlook in years as Brent crude oil climbed toward the $90 per barrel mark on Saturday, driven by the near-total paralysis of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the prospect of a significant upward shock to pump prices just as the country’s inflation appeared to have turned a corner.
Brent crude climbed to around $90 per barrel as of March 7, 2026, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded close to $88, after tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply amid the intensifying Iran-United States conflict. That represents a surge of nearly 30% in a single week, with the benchmark trading in the $92 to $94 range across March 6 and 7, marking the highest levels seen in recent years, with daily gains exceeding 8% in some sessions as markets priced in risks to energy shipments.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which one fifth of the world’s oil and large quantities of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ordinarily flow, has ground to a near halt following Iranian attacks on oil tankers. A commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait closed and threatened to set ablaze any vessel attempting to pass. At least five tankers have been damaged, two personnel killed, and around 150 ships are stranded around the waterway.
An emergency production boost agreed by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has failed to arrest the surge. Analysts say the market is currently factoring in the loss of 7 to 11 million barrels per day of crude and 4 to 5 million barrels per day of refined products, adding a $20 to $40 per barrel risk premium that easily overwhelms any production increase.
For Ghana, the timing is acutely sensitive. The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) set its floor price for the current March 1 to 15 pricing window at GH¢10.46 per litre for petrol and GH¢11.42 per litre for diesel, a modest increase from the February 16 window when petrol stood at GH¢10.24 and diesel at GH¢11.34. That window was calibrated on crude trading around $71 per barrel. With Brent now trading nearly $20 higher, the NPA’s March 16 review will be conducted against a radically different market.
The NPA said that the marginal appreciation of the cedi against major currencies had helped soften the impact of earlier international price pressures on domestic fuel prices. However, analysts warn that a cedi buffer of that magnitude is unlikely to absorb a crude price movement of the current scale. Historically, any sustained fuel increase above 10% in Ghana triggers immediate fare negotiations across the commercial transport sector, raising the cost of the daily commute for millions.
The broader macroeconomic risk is perhaps more consequential. Ghana recorded a near three-decade low inflation rate of 3.3% in February 2026, capping a 14-month streak of decelerating price growth. A sharp fuel price increase would inject cost-push inflationary pressure across the economy through higher transport costs for food and goods. Global analysts warn that persistently higher oil prices are threatening the interest rate policies of major central banks, limiting room for rate cuts and adding to the fiscal burden of oil-importing economies. Ghana, which depends heavily on imported refined petroleum, faces both the direct fuel cost and potential renewed pressure on the cedi if its import bill surges.
In a baseline scenario of a United States-Iran agreement within four weeks, Brent could spike toward $85 per barrel before normalising toward $70 by year-end. However, if the conflict is prolonged and Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue, oil could reach $100 per barrel, with a tail-risk scenario involving attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure pushing Brent above $130 before stabilisation.
