Gold kicked off the week on a softer note on Monday, dipping more than one percent to around 4,970 dollars per ounce following a sharp 2.5 percent jump in the previous session fueled by weaker than expected United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that sent prices soaring.
The retreat followed Thursday’s surge to 5,043.92 dollars per ounce on February 13, marking a 2.48 percent gain from the day before when softer inflation readings rekindled hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets are now pricing in slightly more than two reductions this year based on the latest economic indicators.
Trading data showed gold at 4,992.37 dollars per ounce as of Monday, February 16, 2026, representing a significant pullback from the near two week highs recorded last week. The precious metal has nevertheless climbed nearly nine percent over the past month and soared more than 75 percent compared to last year, reflecting a year of intense market turbulence.
Traders are keeping a close eye on the week’s economic calendar including the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes scheduled for Wednesday, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advance estimate and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Thursday, all of which could shape expectations for the Fed’s next move.
The softer inflation reading from Thursday’s CPI release reinforced market expectations for monetary policy easing. December retail sales fell short of forecasts signaling a slowdown in consumer spending, while the GDP control group slipped 0.1 percent, job openings fell to their lowest level since 2020, and private payroll growth undershot forecasts, collectively signaling cooling demand and easing inflation pressure.
These releases have lowered rate expectations and strengthened the case for policy easing later this year, providing a firmer fundamental backdrop for non yielding bullion. Markets have since priced in a higher probability of three Fed rate cuts this year, up from two just a week ago, according to investor sentiment tracking.
On the geopolitical front, attention is turning to nuclear talks between the US and Iran and US-led negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, both resuming this week. Such developments often ripple through investor sentiment, influencing demand for safe haven assets like gold.
The US issued a warning on Monday to all American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The advisory came even as negotiations between the two nations are set to continue following what they described as positive talks in Oman on Friday, February 13.
President Donald Trump described the initial discussions as very good while Tehran referred to them as a step forward. Both sides agreed to continue negotiations this week, alleviating fears of immediate supply disruptions. However, underlying tensions remain as Trump warned that consequences would be severe if a deal on Iran’s nuclear program is not reached.
Despite the early week pullback, gold remains anchored by lingering geopolitical uncertainty, strong central bank purchases, and investors seeking refuge from sovereign bonds and currencies. Official sector demand remains a key structural support, with China’s central bank extending gold purchases for a fifteenth consecutive month in January.
Gold rose above 5,070 dollars per ounce on Tuesday, February 11, hovering near an almost two week high supported by expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve. The move followed soft US data as December retail sales fell short of forecasts, signaling a slowdown in consumer spending and reinforcing concerns about slowing growth.
Central bank demand has emerged as a critical pillar supporting prices. In 2025, global gold demand rose to 5,002 tonnes with key drivers including geopolitical instability and strong investor interest. Supported by record prices, the total value of gold demand surged by 45 percent to 555 billion dollars, while investment volumes reached 2,175 tonnes.
Demand for gold bars and coins climbed to 1,374 tonnes in 2025, while inflows into gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) increased to 801 tonnes, confirming gold’s role as a store of value during periods of instability. Gold purchases by central banks totaled 863 tonnes in 2025 and are expected to ease slightly to 850 tonnes in 2026.
Technical analysis shows a large Rising Wedge pattern forming with a downside breakout projected near 4,937.88 dollars and a potential target at 4,760.74 dollars or lower. A Bearish Belt Hold pattern has also formed in the 4,996.26 to 5,052.87 dollar range, signaling increased selling pressure.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is hovering near the zero line in negative territory, indicating a lack of strong momentum in the asset. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral with a slight downward bias, holding around 46 and suggesting room for further decline.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) is declining, indicating capital outflows from the asset. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA20) are above the market price, suggesting increased selling pressure. Key support levels include 4,937.88, 4,881.57, 4,821.84, 4,760.74 and 4,701.55 dollars.
Key resistance levels stand at 4,996.26, 5,052.87, 5,107.72, 5,153.72, 5,208.41, 5,266.41, 5,320.89, 5,370.11 and 5,426.67 dollars. The 52 week price range for gold spans from approximately 2,850 to 5,595.42 dollars per ounce, with the all time high recorded on January 29, 2026.
Analysts expect gold to trade in the 4,914.81 to 5,719.00 dollar range by the end of February 2026. Gold prices may remain highly volatile this week amid the release of FOMC minutes, US jobless claims data, other macroeconomic reports and commentary from Federal Reserve officials.
In February 2026, gold prices may be highly volatile amid geopolitical tensions and interest rate changes. Inflation expectations will likely support the precious metal, but a stronger US dollar may limit price gains according to market forecasters.
The trading range for gold on Monday was between 4,967.54 and 5,107.72 dollars per ounce. Despite Monday’s pullback, gold has gained 4.43 percent over the past month while remaining nearly 10 percent below levels recorded at the same time last year when adjusted for the extraordinary rally in early 2025.
As the week unfolds, all eyes are on both economic signals and global tensions. For gold, the story continues to be written in real time, blending market momentum with the ever present allure of uncertainty as investors navigate between data driven policy expectations and geopolitical risk premiums.
