Financial analyst Joe Jackson has argued that recent declines in Ghana’s gold reserves have not resulted in corresponding depreciation of the local currency, contrary to conventional economic expectations.
Speaking on TV3’s Business Focus on Monday, February 2, 2026, Jackson explained that reserves are typically viewed as a measure of economic strength, but recent developments suggest the relationship between gold reserves and currency stability may be more complex than previously understood.
The Chief Executive Officer of Dalex Finance noted that Ghana’s cedi has remained relatively stable in early 2026 despite fluctuations in the country’s gold holdings. The cedi traded at approximately 10.88 cedis to the dollar on the interbank market in late January, representing modest depreciation of roughly four percent from year end levels.
Jackson’s observation comes as Ghana navigates post election economic adjustments following the cedi’s historic 2025 performance. The local currency appreciated more than 40 percent against the United States dollar over 2025, marking its first annual gain in three decades, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) data.
The Bank of Ghana (BoG) had built international reserves of nearly 14 billion dollars by the end of 2025, providing crucial support for currency stability. However, recent IMF reports disclosed that the Gold for Reserves programme incurred losses of 214 million dollars, raising questions about the initiative’s net financial impact.
Governor Johnson Asiama has defended the programme’s performance, stating in earlier interviews that GoldBod has generated approximately eight billion dollars since its March 2025 launch. He explained that the initiative addresses foreign exchange leakages by ensuring export revenues return to Ghana through a revolving system.
Gold reserves increased to 37.06 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025 from 32.99 tonnes in the second quarter, according to official data. The government allocated the cedi equivalent of 279 million dollars in the 2026 budget as a revolving fund for GoldBod to purchase and export at least three tonnes of gold per week from small scale miners.
UK based research firm Fitch Solutions has projected the cedi will weaken by eight percent in 2026, below the long term average annual decline of 10.2 percent recorded between 2010 and 2025. The firm noted that elevated global gold prices and healthy international reserves will limit undue pressure on the exchange rate.
Asiama described the early 2026 cedi movement as normal and short term, driven largely by seasonal and speculative factors. He emphasized that improved reserve accumulation and prudent monetary policy have provided crucial buffers for the local currency.
The IMF warned that Ghana’s economic stability remains highly sensitive to fluctuations in global gold prices. An adverse scenario analysis suggests that a potential 30 percent drop in gold prices by end 2026 would significantly reduce gold exports, weaken foreign exchange inflows, and pressure the cedi.
Jackson has consistently emphasized that external factors, including global gold price movements and dollar weakness, have played significant roles in the cedi’s recent performance alongside domestic policy interventions.
