Databank Research expects the Ghana cedi to hold relatively steady through 2026, projecting a year-end depreciation of 7.20 percent against the US dollar and a closing rate of approximately GH¢12.85 to the dollar, provided no major systemic disruptions materialise.
The forecast, contained in the firm’s 2026 Economic Outlook, does not dismiss risk. Demand from bulk importers, energy sector payments and pending Eurobond obligations are all expected to weigh on the currency across the year. What the report argues is that these pressures are manageable, and it identifies two principal anchors that should limit the downside.
The first is gold. Databank’s projection rests on an assumption of roughly GH¢750 million in monthly inflows from the Ghana Gold Board (GOLDBOD), supported by ongoing formalisation reforms in the small-scale mining sector. Sustained inflows at that level, the report argues, would give the Bank of Ghana (BoG) sufficient room to intervene in the foreign exchange market and smooth out volatility without drawing down reserves sharply.
The second anchor is external institutional support. Continued programme engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank has kept investor sentiment broadly constructive toward Ghana’s macroeconomic trajectory, adding a layer of confidence that purely domestic fundamentals alone might not sustain.
Beyond these two pillars, Databank draws attention to a longer-range shift in global finance. Several central banks are quietly reducing their exposure to the US dollar as a reserve asset and channelling more of their holdings into gold, with China identified as the most prominent driver of this trend amid uncertainty over US policy direction.
The firm also flags active deliberations around reclassifying gold from a Tier 1 asset to High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) status under international banking standards. If adopted, that change would allow gold to function as eligible collateral in repurchase agreement financing, a development Databank describes as a potential structural evolution in the global financial system.
The BRICS grouping has discussed related arrangements, though the report notes those conversations remain tentative. Concerns over price volatility, custody arrangements and cross-border trust have tempered enthusiasm for a rapid transition. Databank treats the scenario as low probability in the near term but acknowledges that even incremental movement in that direction could reinforce gold’s monetary value, chip away at dollar dominance and indirectly strengthen reserve accumulation for gold-producing economies including Ghana.
Setting aside that structural scenario, Databank maintains a neutral-to-positive stance on the cedi for 2026, supported by tighter foreign exchange regulations and reserves that the firm considers adequate to absorb moderate demand pressures without triggering a disorderly depreciation.
The projection arrives as the cedi continues to trade well below where most analysts expected it to be at this point, following a 2025 performance that confounded market forecasts and delivered an appreciation of more than 25 percent over the course of that year.
