Worldwide air cargo rates averaged 2.58 US dollars per kilogram in the final week of October 2025, reflecting continued strength in the sector despite moderating growth patterns, according to market data from WorldACD published on November 6, 2025.
The data, based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions, shows rates increased 4 percent year over year in the most recent two week period. This marks a significant slowdown from the double digit gains recorded throughout most of 2024, when the industry experienced its strongest performance since the pandemic peak in late 2021.
Africa led regional rate growth with a 13 percent increase year over year, while Asia Pacific posted 6 percent gains. Central and South America recorded 8 percent growth, while Europe showed more modest gains of 4 percent. Middle East and South Asia expanded by 10 percent, while North America remained flat with rates declining 2 percent compared to the previous year.
Chargeable weight, the industry measure for cargo volume, decreased 4 percent year over year across global markets during the latest two week period. This represents a reversal from the sustained volume growth experienced throughout 2024. Worldwide air cargo finished 2024 with tonnages approximately 11 percent higher than the previous year, though growth had softened to single digits by the fourth quarter.
Recent market dynamics reflect continued pressure from ecommerce demand, particularly for fashion and technology products, which are dominating available aircraft capacity. Airlines have prioritized higher value and time sensitive shipments to maximize revenue per flight, leaving general cargo shippers facing extended booking lead times and reduced space availability.
Global short term air rates reached their highest level in nearly two years during November 2024 at 2.90 dollars per kilogram, representing the sixth consecutive month of double digit year over year growth at that time. The subsequent stabilization in late 2025 reflects normalizing supply and demand dynamics as the market adjusts to higher baseline volumes established during the previous year’s surge.
The International Air Transport Association forecasts air cargo volumes will grow 5.8 percent in 2025, reaching 80 million tons, representing approximately half the growth rate recorded in 2024. The trade association attributes continued strength to persistent ocean shipping disruptions, tight freighter capacity and robust cross border ecommerce activity.
Aircraft cargo capacity is projected to grow 6.4 percent in 2025, potentially introducing more capacity than demand for the first time in several years. This shift could exert downward pressure on rates as supply catches up with demand levels that surged during the Red Sea shipping crisis and subsequent container shipping disruptions.
Ecommerce remains the major driver of air freight demand, with Asia Pacific markets expected to account for 80 percent of the projected 36 trillion dollar global business to business ecommerce market by 2026. Consumer preferences for niche brands promoted through social media platforms continue reshaping demand patterns, driving growth potential in markets across Southeast Asia and Latin America.
The regional variation in rate trends highlights diverging market conditions across major trade lanes. Strong performance from African origins reflects capacity constraints and growing manufacturing activity in select markets, while North American rate softness stems from improved inventory management and increased passenger aircraft belly hold capacity on key routes.
Industry analysts caution that geopolitical factors, including potential trade policy changes and tariff implementations, could significantly impact growth trajectories in coming months. Airlines are adjusting capacity deployment strategies to optimize yields while managing the structural shift toward ecommerce driven freight patterns that now dominate major headhaul routes from Asia to Western markets.
