Worldwide air cargo rates climbed to $2.51 per kilogram in early October, marking modest recovery after several weeks of decline, according to the latest WorldACD market analysis covering more than 500,000 weekly transactions.
The data for the week ending October 5 shows rates up 4% compared with the previous two weeks, though they remain down 5% year over year. This reversal follows a sustained downward trend, with the five week average showing rates 2% lower than the preceding period.
Africa stands out as the strongest performing region, with rates jumping 9% in the most recent two week comparison and volumes up 4% over the same period. The continent’s air cargo sector has maintained positive momentum, bucking the softer trends visible in other markets.
Asia Pacific presents a contrasting picture. While the region saw rates inch up 1% in recent weeks, volumes dropped 7% year over year despite a 3% uptick in the latest comparison period. Capacity in the region grew 5% compared with the preceding two weeks, suggesting supply may be outpacing immediate demand.
North America experienced the most consistent weakness, with both rates and volumes down 2% year over year. The two week trend shows rates declining 2% as well, making it the only major region showing contraction across multiple metrics. Capacity in North America dropped 2% on an annual basis but rose 2% in recent weeks.
European air cargo markets held relatively steady, with rates up 3% year over year and volumes increasing 2% annually. The region’s capacity remained essentially flat, indicating balanced supply and demand dynamics. Central and South America saw rates climb 4% year over year, though recent weekly comparisons showed minimal movement.
The Middle East and South Asia region posted 4% rate growth annually but faced a dramatic 22% drop in volumes compared with last year. This disconnect between pricing and volume suggests possible shifts in trade patterns or route preferences affecting the region’s cargo flows.
Global capacity edged up 2% year over year while remaining flat in recent weeks, according to the data. Total chargeable weight worldwide declined 5% compared with the same period in 2024, even as the latest two week period showed 2% growth.
These patterns emerge as the air cargo industry navigates what analysts earlier described as a deceleration from the double digit growth rates that characterized much of 2024 and early 2025. The sector had experienced 14 consecutive months of strong expansion before growth began moderating.
Current rates remain well above pre pandemic levels. Before COVID disruptions, international air cargo typically ranged from $2.50 to $5.00 per kilogram depending on cargo type and available space, though volatility has become a defining characteristic of the market since 2020.
The varying regional performance suggests the air cargo market is fragmenting rather than moving uniformly in one direction. Shippers face different dynamics depending on origin and destination, with traditional powerhouses like Asia Pacific and North America showing softer demand while emerging regions like Africa demonstrate stronger growth trajectories.
Peak season dynamics typically influence the fourth quarter, and some capacity relief is expected as carriers adjust fleet deployment. However, the mixed signals across regions make it difficult to predict whether the modest October recovery represents a turning point or merely a temporary fluctuation in an otherwise softening market.
WorldACD’s analysis covers transactions from more than 15,000 freight forwarders globally, providing one of the most comprehensive views of air cargo market conditions. The organization publishes detailed weekly data for subscribers tracking hundreds of specific origin and destination pairs.
