Worldwide air cargo rates reached $2.44 per kilogram in mid October, reflecting divergent regional trends as the industry navigates a period of moderation after 14 months of double digit growth, according to WorldACD market analysis covering over 500,000 weekly transactions.
The data for the week ending October 12, 2025, reveals a complex picture where Africa leads with strong gains while other major markets show weakness or stagnation. Overall worldwide rates declined 4 percent year over year, though the two week comparison with the previous fortnight showed 1 percent growth.
Africa stands out as the strongest performing region, with rates jumping 9 percent year over year and volumes climbing 3 percent annually. The continent’s air cargo sector has maintained positive momentum despite softer trends visible across other major trade lanes.
Asia Pacific presents a contrasting picture, with rates up just 3 percent year over year while volumes dropped 6 percent compared with 2024. The region’s capacity increased 4 percent annually, suggesting supply is outpacing demand growth on key Asian routes.
Europe held relatively steady with rates up 3 percent year over year and volumes rising 4 percent annually. Capacity remained essentially flat with a modest 1 percent decline, indicating balanced supply and demand dynamics across European gateways.
North America experienced consistent weakness, posting 0 percent rate growth year over year while volumes declined 1 percent annually. Recent two week trends showed rates unchanged and volumes down 1 percent, making it among the weakest performing major regions.
Central and South America saw rates climb 7 percent year over year with volumes declining 4 percent, suggesting pricing power despite softer demand. The Middle East and South Asia region posted 6 percent rate growth annually but faced a dramatic 21 percent drop in volumes compared with last year.
The mixed regional performance reflects broader market dynamics as air cargo transitions from the exceptional growth rates that characterized 2024 and early 2025. The industry experienced 14 consecutive months of double digit expansion before growth began moderating in recent months.
Global air freight rates fell by 1.2 percent in the week ending October 13, 2025, according to TAC Index data, showing a 4.1 percent year on year decline in the Baltic Air Freight Index. The decline was mainly attributed to lower rates from Asia, though prices rose from Hong Kong, Europe, and North America after China’s Golden Week holiday.
Rates from China to Europe and from North Asia to destinations such as Australia, India, and Mexico declined week on week, while routes to the US rose amid renewed trade tensions over rare earths.
Hong Kong’s outbound index rose 1.7 percent week on week but remained 1.1 percent below year ago levels, while Shanghai’s index dropped 3.9 percent week on week and 8.1 percent year on year, highlighting the geographic fragmentation within Asian markets.
Current rates remain substantially above pre pandemic levels. Before COVID disruptions, international air cargo typically ranged from $2.50 to $5.00 per kilogram depending on cargo type and available space, though volatility has become a defining characteristic since 2020.
Global capacity edged up 2 percent year over year while remaining flat in recent weeks. Total chargeable weight worldwide increased 3 percent in the latest two week period, though it declined 4 percent compared with the same period in 2024.
Industry analysts suggest the varying regional performance indicates the air cargo market is fragmenting rather than moving uniformly in one direction. Peak season dynamics typically influence the fourth quarter, and some capacity relief is expected as carriers adjust fleet deployment.
The global air cargo market cruised into 2025 on the back of 14 consecutive months of double digit growth in demand as volumes climbed 11 percent year on year in December and average spot rates finished the year 15 percent higher, according to Xeneta. However, growth projections for 2025 suggest a deceleration to 4 to 6 percent.
Air cargo volume growth will be halved in 2025, but it will still be a good year for carriers behind continued ocean shipping delays, tight freighter capacity and strength in cross border e-commerce, the International Air Transport Association forecast.
E-commerce remains a major driver of air freight demand, particularly in Asia Pacific markets. Experts attribute more than 50 percent of air cargo volumes out of Asia this year to e-commerce, with large online marketplaces executing direct to consumer fulfillment strategies from China.
The traditional business to business airfreight market is expected to rebound in 2025, supported by demand for semiconductors to power artificial intelligence, advanced computer processing, and electric vehicles. Global yields in October were approximately 50 percent higher than in 2019 and up 11 percent year over year.
Global air cargo connectivity is set to expand with the launch of new routes linking key trade hubs across Asia, Europe, North America, and Latin America. The Asian network now includes services from Bangkok to the US, from China and Hong Kong to Australia, India, Mexico, and Spain, and from Seoul to the US.
Whether the mixed October signals represent a turning point or merely temporary fluctuation in an otherwise softening market remains uncertain. The industry faces potential headwinds from geopolitical tensions, manufacturing slowdowns, and possible regulatory changes affecting cross border e-commerce.
For now, the air cargo sector appears to be entering a phase of more moderate, regionally varied growth after an extraordinary period of expansion, with capacity and demand dynamics suggesting continued pricing pressure in some markets while others maintain strength.
