Worldwide air cargo rates increased during late November as peak season demand pushed prices higher despite growing capacity, according to WorldACD Market Data analysis.
Average global rates reached 2.71 dollars per kilogram in the week ending November 30, representing a 5 percent year-over-year increase. The data, based on over 500,000 weekly transactions, shows rates climbed steadily through November despite capacity expanding 4 percent compared to last year. Chargeable weight grew 5 percent year-over-year, slightly outpacing capacity additions.
Regional patterns varied significantly. Africa recorded the strongest rate growth at 14 percent year-over-year, followed by Middle East and South Asia at 10 percent. Asia Pacific rates increased 6 percent, while North America remained flat compared to the previous year. Europe and Central and South America posted 7 percent and 8 percent gains respectively.
The latest two-week period showed mixed momentum. Chargeable weight from Asia Pacific fell 3 percent compared to the preceding two weeks, while Africa volumes increased 4 percent. North America shipments rose 1 percent, reflecting moderate pre-holiday shipping activity. Rates in the most recent fortnight edged higher across most regions, with Africa showing particular strength.
Industry analysts attribute the rate increases to sustained e-commerce demand and strategic capacity management by carriers. Southeast Asia to United States lanes experienced double-digit volume growth earlier in the year, though Northeast Asia volumes faced pressure from regulatory changes affecting cross-border e-commerce shipments. Carriers shifted freighter capacity between routes to maintain load factors.
November demand continued 2025 trends, with global tonnages up 5 percent year-over-year according to separate Xeneta analysis. The market is on track for 4 percent annual growth despite earlier predictions of weaker performance. Peak season traditionally drives rate increases from September through December as retailers stock inventory for holiday shopping.
Capacity growth lagged demand for most of 2025. Dynamic load factors, measuring cargo space utilization, rose 3 percentage points year-over-year to 62 percent in recent months. Airlines maintained discipline on capacity additions while demand from e-commerce platforms and traditional shippers remained robust. Passenger aircraft belly capacity also contributed as international travel schedules normalized.
The transpacific market experienced volatility throughout 2025 due to United States trade policy changes. Implementation of higher tariffs and modifications to de minimis exemption rules for low-value shipments affected China to United States volumes. Tonnages from Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore to the United States surged 30 to 50 percent year-over-year, partially offsetting declines from China, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea.
Europe to North America rates showed the sharpest annual decline among major trade lanes, down 8 percent year-over-year despite month-over-month increases. Reduced passenger bellyhold capacity following the October schedule change typically tightens westbound transatlantic markets, but freighter reallocation to Asia Pacific routes moderated price pressure this year.
Looking ahead, industry forecasts for 2026 remain cautious. Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw projects 2 to 3 percent demand growth as e-commerce expansion moderates from recent double-digit increases. Geopolitical tensions, manufacturing outlook uncertainty, and potential trade disruptions create downside risks. Freight forwarders reportedly prioritize market share over pricing discipline, potentially pressuring yields despite modest demand growth expectations.
