Worldwide air cargo freight rates inched upward during the week ending October 26, 2025, continuing a pattern of modest gains as the industry navigates peak season demand against a backdrop of evolving capacity dynamics and shifting trade flows across key global corridors.
Average global rates reached $2.54 per kilogram for the week, representing a 3% increase over the preceding five weeks, according to market intelligence from WorldACD Market Data based on more than 500,000 weekly transactions. That pricing level sits roughly 5% above rates recorded during the same period last year, though the year over year comparison reveals a market that’s stabilized considerably compared to 2024’s more volatile swings.
The most striking development centers on Africa, where rates surged 12% when comparing the latest two week period against the previous two weeks. This dramatic spike, combined with flat capacity growth of just 1% over the same timeframe, points to tightening supply conditions on routes originating from the continent. Chargeable weight remained essentially unchanged, suggesting the rate increases reflect genuine scarcity rather than demand surges.
Asia Pacific markets showed continued strength with rates climbing 5% over the past five weeks and an additional 6% gain in the most recent two week window. The region continues driving global cargo flows, though its growth trajectory has moderated from the explosive double digit increases seen throughout much of 2024. Capacity expanded 9% in the latest two week period, helping absorb demand, but chargeable weight still managed a 2% decline year over year, illustrating how the comparison base has shifted as 2024’s exceptional volumes normalize.
Middle East and South Asia emerged as another hotspot, with rates advancing 9% year over year despite capacity remaining flat and chargeable weight dropping sharply by 22% compared to the same weeks last year. This dramatic tonnage decline likely reflects the winding down of the Red Sea disruption premium that had supercharged air cargo demand from the region earlier in 2024 when ocean shipping diversions peaked.
North America saw relatively stable conditions with rates up just 1% year over year and capacity growing a modest 2%. The region’s 3% rate gain over the past five weeks and flat performance in the latest two week comparison suggests demand is holding steady without creating the kind of pressure that forces dramatic price adjustments. Chargeable weight dropped 2% year over year, consistent with expectations that 2025 would see more moderate growth following 2024’s exceptional performance.
Europe’s markets painted a similar picture of stability. Rates increased 6% year over year while capacity remained essentially unchanged. The 1% rate gain over five weeks and 2% uptick in chargeable weight year over year indicate balanced conditions where neither supply shortages nor demand weakness dominate market dynamics. The continent continues benefiting from robust intra European trade and steady transatlantic flows, even as traditional manufacturing cargo has softened.
Central and South America posted solid gains with rates up 8% year over year, reflecting the region’s growing importance in global supply chains. The 3% capacity increase over five weeks has kept pace with demand reasonably well, though a 4% decline in chargeable weight year over year suggests volumes haven’t quite matched 2024’s elevated levels. Flower shipments and agricultural products continue anchoring much of the region’s air cargo activity, with seasonal patterns creating predictable spikes around major holidays.
What’s particularly noteworthy about late October’s market conditions is how they contrast with earlier volatility seen throughout 2025. The year began with rates 13% higher than January 2024, driven by lingering Red Sea shipping disruptions and aggressive front loading of shipments to beat various tariff deadlines. As those specific factors moderated, rates gradually normalized, with several months seeing year over year declines before stabilizing in the third quarter.
Industry analysis heading into the final quarter of 2025 had anticipated that traditional high season demand would pick up globally from mid October onward, and these latest figures suggest that pattern is indeed materializing, though without the dramatic spikes that characterized some previous peak seasons. The relatively modest rate increases and balanced capacity suggest markets are functioning more efficiently than during 2023 and 2024’s more chaotic periods.
E commerce shipments, which experts attribute to more than 50% of air cargo volumes out of Asia this year, continue playing an outsized role in shaping market dynamics. The direct to consumer fulfillment model pioneered by large online marketplaces from China has fundamentally altered freight patterns, elbowing out traditional B2B cargo like apparel and electronics while contributing to sustained rate pressure on westbound routes out of Asia.
The capacity picture remains complex across regions. Passenger belly space has largely returned following pandemic era disruptions, but freighter supply continues facing constraints from aircraft delivery delays and fleet retirements. This imbalance affects different trade lanes unevenly. The trans Pacific route sees dedicated freighters commanding an 89% share, higher than during the pandemic peak, while transatlantic markets rely more heavily on passenger belly capacity that varies seasonally.
Regional variations in the two week to two week comparisons reveal interesting tactical shifts. Africa’s 12% rate jump stands out as an anomaly requiring watching in coming weeks to determine whether it represents sustainable tightening or temporary disruption. Asia Pacific’s 6% gain aligns with typical pre peak season patterns, while Europe’s 1% increase suggests adequate capacity to meet demand without significant price pressure.
Looking at capacity trends, the divergence between regions tells part of the story. Asia Pacific’s 9% two week capacity increase reflects airlines deploying additional resources to capture peak season demand, particularly for e commerce flows. North America’s flat capacity growth indicates carriers are matching supply more precisely to actual demand rather than speculating on volume surges. Africa’s minimal 1% capacity increase despite the sharp rate spike hints at structural supply constraints rather than strategic allocation decisions.
The chargeable weight patterns reveal how the comparison base matters. Most regions showing year over year declines in volumes aren’t necessarily experiencing weak demand; rather, they’re cycling against 2024’s exceptional growth when tonnages surged 11% globally. A modest year over year decline from that elevated base still represents healthy absolute volume levels in historical context.
Market participants heading toward the year end peak now face a different environment than recent years. The air cargo industry’s cautious optimism remains tempered by susceptibility to geopolitical tensions, subdued manufacturing outlooks, and political interventions in an increasingly volatile world. Those uncertainties create planning challenges for shippers trying to balance securing adequate capacity against avoiding expensive premiums for space they may not ultimately need.
Contract negotiations for 2026 are already underway, with both airlines and freight forwarders reassessing strategies following this year’s more stable but still elevated pricing environment. The shift toward longer term contracts that characterized 2024, when agreements of one year or more accounted for 63% of deals, reflects broader industry preference for predictability over spot market gambling, even if that means accepting somewhat higher baseline costs.
For the week ending October 26, the numbers ultimately paint a picture of markets functioning reasonably well. Rates are higher than pre pandemic norms but not experiencing the wild swings that characterized earlier periods. Capacity generally matches demand adequately, though regional variations create pockets of tightness. And volumes, while not matching 2024’s extraordinary growth, remain healthy by longer term historical standards.
As November begins and the traditional peak intensifies further, these dynamics will be tested. Whether the moderate rate increases and balanced conditions persist, or whether capacity constraints emerge to push prices higher, will depend partly on factors outside the air cargo industry’s direct control, including ocean freight reliability, manufacturing activity levels, and consumer spending patterns heading into the holiday season.
