Ghana’s crude oil output has fallen for six straight years, dropping from 71.44 million barrels in 2019 to 37.3 million barrels in 2025, according to the Public Interest and Accountability Committee’s (PIAC) 2025 Annual Report released this week. Yet behind that sobering number, a parallel story of committed capital is now taking shape that could define the sector’s next decade.
Petroleum receipts fell to US$770 million in 2025, down from US$1.36 billion the previous year, a 43 percent decline driven by lower output, reduced crude prices, and a delayed lifting from the Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) Field. The Jubilee Field remained the largest producer at 22.2 million barrels, with the Sankofa-Gye Nyame (SGN) Field contributing 9.26 million barrels and TEN recording just 5.83 million barrels.
PIAC Chairman Richard Ellimah described the pace of decline as a national concern, noting that production has fallen at a compounded annual average of nine percent since its peak. The committee called on the government and the Petroleum Commission to develop a coordinated investment framework targeting existing producing fields, particularly TEN, where output has consistently fallen below projections.
US$3.5 Billion in New Commitments
What the headline production figures do not fully capture is the scale of capital commitments now on the table. The government confirmed in its 2026 Budget that it has secured approximately US$3.5 billion in investment pledges for the upstream sector.
A US$2 billion framework agreement covering the Jubilee and TEN fields, formalized when Ghana’s Parliament ratified extensions of the West Cape Three Points (WCTP) and Deep Water Tano (DWT) petroleum agreements to December 2040, authorizes the drilling of up to 20 additional wells. The Noble Venturer drillship is already engaged in a multi-well campaign that began in late 2024, with the J-74 producer well having come online in early 2026 and reportedly exceeding 10,000 barrels per day at initial rates.
Separately, partners in the Offshore Cape Three Points (OCTP) project, which includes the SGN field, signed a Memorandum of Intent to invest an additional US$1.5 billion, covering production expansion and exploration of adjacent areas.
From Lease to Ownership at TEN
In February 2026, Tullow Ghana Limited, on behalf of the TEN joint venture that includes the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), GNPC Explorco, Kosmos Energy, and PetroSA, signed an agreement to acquire the floating production, storage, and offloading vessel (FPSO) Prof. John Evans Atta Mills for US$205 million. Completion is expected in the first quarter of 2027, subject to regulatory approvals.
The acquisition eliminates annual lease payments and is projected to reduce fixed operating costs at the TEN Field, with Tullow saying the move supports improved cash flow beyond 2027 and enhances operational alignment with the adjacent Jubilee Field.
Opening New Frontiers
Beyond existing fields, Ghana is advancing exploration on two fronts that were previously inactive. GNPC Explorco completed an aerial geophysical survey in March 2026 as part of the Voltaian Basin project and is now targeting later in 2026 for the first onshore exploration well to be drilled in the basin since 1974. The basin covers approximately 103,600 square kilometers, equivalent to roughly 40 percent of Ghana’s landmass, and has drawn both excitement and scrutiny, given that the corporation has spent over US$120 million on seismic data collection without a drill result to date.
Deep-water seismic surveys in the ultra-deep Accra and Keta offshore zones are also being planned, with Shell returning to the negotiating table for exploration rights in the South Deep Water Tano area.
The Debt Overhang
PIAC cautioned that investor confidence remains fragile. Ghana owes nearly US$225 million to partners, including Tullow, for gas payments and unrecovered costs. The committee warned that clearing this debt is a precondition for sustaining the momentum that new investment commitments have created.
A Technical Adviser at the Ministry of Finance, Dr. Theophilus Acheampong, said at this week’s PIAC report launch that structural reform efforts over the past year had corrected some earlier policy missteps, but stressed that sustaining output was now the central challenge. “The real issue now is how to sustain production going forward, because without increased output, the revenues needed for the country simply do not materialise,” he said.
The PIAC report marks a moment where the statistical evidence of decline and the financial evidence of recovery are arriving at the same time. Whether the investment commitments translate into barrels before the existing fields decline further will determine which story Ghana’s petroleum sector tells over the next five years.
