Fuel prices across Ghana will rise from May 16, 2026, no matter what government decides about its current consumer cushioning policy, according to the Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), Dr. Riverson Oppong.
Speaking to JoyBusiness ahead of the policy’s expiry date, Dr. Oppong laid out two pricing scenarios that both end with higher costs at the pump, framing the government’s upcoming decision as one of degree rather than direction.
“Extending the policy will only lower the expected margin of increase at the pumps,” he told JoyBusiness.
Under an extension, petrol prices are projected to climb by between 2.5% and 3% per litre, settling at around GHC14.50, while diesel is expected to rise by roughly 1.8% to approximately GHC16.50 per litre. Should government allow the policy to lapse entirely, the impact sharpens considerably, with petrol potentially reaching GHC15.80 per litre and diesel rising to around GHC18.05.
Dr. Oppong offered no clear price outlook for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), noting that prevailing stock levels will determine where that settles.
He also pushed back on expectations that sourcing more refined petroleum products from Nigeria would bring prices down, drawing a firm line between product availability and pump affordability. In his view, increased supply does not automatically translate to lower prices for consumers.
The projections sit against a volatile global backdrop. Brent crude is currently trading at approximately $107.67 per barrel following renewed fears of United States military strikes on Iran, which have raised fresh concerns over supply disruptions through key shipping corridors. Analysts have cautioned that sustained crude price increases will feed into domestic inflation, especially through transport and energy costs.
Despite the pressure, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Fitch Ratings have all maintained that Ghana remains on course to close 2026 with single-digit inflation. Consumers and businesses have three days to prepare for the adjustments, with the next pricing window opening on Friday.
