Ghana is bracing for its sharpest fuel price increase in recent memory ahead of the April 1 pricing window, with verified projections from the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) pointing to petrol rising by 16.1 percent and diesel by 18.6 percent, driven by the Iran war’s disruption of global crude supply.
In a statement dated March 26, 2026, COPEC projected that global crude oil prices had surged by approximately 26.21 percent within the current pricing window, climbing from $86.2 per barrel to $109.23 per barrel. The cedi also depreciated by about 1.22 percent against the US dollar, moving from an interbank rate of GH¢10.91 to GH¢11.05, compounding the pressure.
Brent crude closed at $112.57 per barrel on Friday, March 27, its highest level since July 2022, as the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed to commercial traffic since March 2, disrupting approximately 17.8 million barrels per day of global oil flows. Goldman Sachs estimates a $14 to $18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium is already embedded in current prices.
The numbers translate to tangible pain at the pump. COPEC projects diesel prices will hit approximately GH¢18.67 per litre, with pump prices likely ranging between GH¢17.74 and GH¢19.61. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) faces an even steeper climb, with international LPG prices rising 36.93 percent, from $620.6 to $856.20 per metric tonne, pushing the expected retail price to approximately GH¢15.90 per kilogram.
As of the second pricing window of March 2026, petrol was selling above GH¢12.40 per litre and diesel at GH¢15.60. If COPEC’s projections hold when the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) sets its April 1 floor, diesel alone would rise by more than GH¢3 per litre in a single window.
The NPA’s indicative floor for the second March window had already set petrol at GH¢11.57 and diesel at GH¢14.35 per litre before levies, margins, and charges were added. The authority noted that final pump prices exceed these base rates significantly once statutory levies, profit margins, and operational overheads are factored in.
COPEC called on Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to absorb part of the cost, urging them to “shield consumers by shelving some of their margins in order not to overburden them with these steep increments.”
The wider economic stakes are considerable. Energy and Green Transition Minister John Abu Jinapor has pushed back against parliamentary calls to abolish the GH¢1 per litre fuel levy, warning that removing it without a credible replacement risked triggering a fresh energy sector crisis. He disclosed that his ministry was in active engagement with the Ministry of Finance to assess whether the levy could be reviewed or replaced with a more sustainable arrangement.
COPEC Executive Secretary Duncan Amoah has renewed calls for Ghana to establish strategic fuel reserves, warning that the country’s current model of immediate price pass-through left consumers with no cushion against global shocks. “We wait and obey the wind. Whatever happens, we pass it on to our people,” he said. Industry experts estimate Ghana would need approximately $3 billion to establish a six-month strategic petroleum reserve.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent will remain above $95 per barrel for the next two months before falling below $80 in the third quarter of 2026, contingent on the Strait of Hormuz reopening. Goldman Sachs has warned that if the conflict persists, Brent could exceed its 2008 all-time high of $147 per barrel.
President Donald Trump’s deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait falls on April 6, 2026, five days after Ghana’s new pump prices take effect. If diplomatic efforts fail, a second consecutive pricing shock at the May window cannot be ruled out.
