Ghana could slide back into widespread power rationing within a year if government fails to expand generation capacity and resolve mounting debts owed to Independent Power Producers, energy experts warned Thursday, raising the specter of another crippling dumsor crisis.
Speaking on the Asaase Breakfast Show on October 30, Justice Ohene-Akoto, Executive Director of the Africa Sustainable Energy Centre, and Dr. Nii Darko Asante, an energy consultant and former technical director at the Energy Commission, painted a grim picture of Ghana’s energy outlook, suggesting the window for avoiding blackouts is closing rapidly.
According to Ohene-Akoto, Ghana’s energy mix remains dangerously dependent on thermal generation, which constitutes about 70 percent of supply. The country has failed to diversify into renewables as planned, with only 2 percent of the national energy mix coming from renewable sources, far below the 10 percent target set for 2030.
“We’re running out of time. If new generation isn’t added in the next ten months, we could face another round of dumsor,” he cautioned, using the Akan term for “on and off” that became synonymous with the rolling blackouts that plagued Ghana in the early 2010s. Those power cuts affected households, disrupted businesses, and severely hindered economic growth, leaving deep psychological scars on millions of Ghanaians.
The experts scored Ghana as a low-performing country in ASEC’s renewable energy index, a troubling assessment for a nation that once positioned itself as a leader in West African power sector development. The failure to hit renewable targets comes despite Ghana’s immense potential for wind and solar projects that could provide thousands of megawatts of clean generation capacity.
Dr. Asante focused on a different but equally critical challenge: inefficiencies and theft in the power distribution chain that continue inflating tariffs for ordinary consumers. When neighbors steal power through illegal connections, law-abiding consumers pay for those losses through higher rates, he explained. These commercial losses at ECG, which reportedly exceed 35 percent when combining technical and non-technical losses, are passed on to everyone else.
The experts called for smart metering systems, policy reform, and private sector participation in revenue collection to reduce ECG’s commercial losses. They also urged government to treat the energy sector as a business rather than a political tool, suggesting that political considerations have repeatedly undermined sound economic management of power generation and distribution.
Ohene-Akoto’s most pointed warning concerned the chronic payment delays to IPPs. If government continues delaying payments, power producers may shut down, he said, framing energy as a national security issue. If IPPs stop generating, Ghana’s economy will grind to a halt, he warned.
That’s not an idle threat. As of March 2025, Ghana’s energy sector debt stood at $3.1 billion, a figure projected to exceed $9 billion by 2026 if systemic reforms aren’t implemented. IPPs currently provide 45 percent of Ghana’s electricity generation, but many are owed millions in unpaid bills despite government claims of improved payment performance.
The government spent nearly $1.5 billion on IPPs and energy sector supplies by the end of September 2025, according to the Ministry of Energy and Green Transition, significantly exceeding 2024’s total expenditure. The ministry’s spokesperson suggested this improved fiscal discipline has restored confidence among IPPs, noting they’re no longer threatening shutdowns as they did previously.
However, that optimistic assessment contrasts with the broader debt picture and the warnings from independent energy analysts. While the government has renegotiated some IPP agreements, saving approximately $300 million, the relief appears modest when measured against total sector obligations.
Many of Ghana’s power purchase agreements were negotiated through non-transparent bilateral arrangements during previous energy crises, locking the country into costly, inflexible contracts that strain public finances. These “take or pay” deals, where Ghana must pay for contracted capacity even if the power isn’t used, played a crucial role in attracting IPPs during the dumsor years but now represent financial burdens as demand patterns have shifted.
The experts highlighted the need for Ghana to strengthen its energy transition framework covering 2022 to 2070 by investing in solar, wind, and waste-to-energy projects. Ohene-Akoto advocated for a hybrid model: keep oil and gas assets operational but invest heavily in renewables to diversify the energy mix and reduce exposure to imported fuel price volatility.
Ghana’s dependence on imported fuel for thermal power generation exposes the sector to global commodity price swings and foreign exchange pressures. The government’s inability to settle a $75 million debt owed to N-Gas Limited, which supplies gas through the West Africa Gas Pipeline, has compounded supply challenges, forcing maintenance shutdowns that strain electricity distribution.
The warnings come as power consumers continue facing rising tariffs despite periodic blackouts, a particularly frustrating combination that erodes public trust in the power sector. For small business owners, unreliable electricity means lost revenue, spoiled inventory, and inability to serve customers. For students, it means lost study hours. For manufacturers, it means reduced productivity and competitiveness.
Ghana’s energy infrastructure suffers from aging equipment prone to breakdowns. While some plants have been rehabilitated, much of the generation and distribution network requires significant investment to maintain reliability. The Ghana Grid Company and ECG are reportedly grappling with mounting debts that raise questions about their ability to maintain and expand infrastructure without substantial financial restructuring.
The political economy of Ghana’s energy sector complicates reform efforts. Energy policy has repeatedly become entangled with electoral politics, with administrations prioritizing short-term fixes over addressing systemic issues like financial mismanagement, distribution inefficiencies, and over-reliance on thermal and hydroelectric power. The experts’ call to treat energy as a business rather than political tool reflects frustration with how partisan considerations have undermined sector stability.
Some analysts suggest accelerating renewable energy deployment, expanding public-private partnerships to bring capital and expertise for infrastructure modernization, and establishing an independent energy authority with the mandate to oversee long-term planning beyond political cycles. Such reforms could help insulate the sector from political interference while ensuring continuity in critical projects across administrations.
Whether Ghana can avoid another dumsor crisis depends on actions taken in the coming months. The ten-month window Ohene-Akoto described suggests time for preventive measures is running short. New generation capacity takes years to develop and bring online, meaning decisions delayed today lock in supply constraints tomorrow.
For millions of Ghanaians who lived through the early 2010s blackouts, the prospect of returning to that era evokes anxiety and economic uncertainty. Whether government can act decisively on IPP payments, accelerate renewable energy deployment, reduce distribution losses, and modernize infrastructure will determine if those fears materialize or if Ghana successfully navigates the current challenges toward stable, affordable power supply.
