The Minerals Income Investment Fund (MIIF) has identified geopolitical risk as one of the most important factors likely to shape global markets in 2026, citing its growing influence on commodity prices, capital flows and investor risk appetite.
The average fourth quarter gold price was a record $4,135 per ounce, up 55 percent year on year, resulting in the highest annual average of $3,431 per ounce, up 44 percent year on year. Gold tagged its 53rd all time price high for the year, reaching $4,449 per ounce on 23 December, before closing the year at $4,368 per ounce.
In 2025, escalating tensions in the Middle East, ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and renewed trade frictions contributed to sharp price swings across energy and precious metals markets. MIIF’s Economic and Market Overview for 2025 notes that these risks remain unresolved and are expected to continue affecting supply chains and investment decisions in the year ahead.
Safe haven and diversification motives were consistent themes driving investment interest throughout the year, along with price driven motivations. Central bank purchases of 863 tonnes reached the upper end of the expected 2025 range. They remain historically elevated and geographically widespread but have slowed from their recent pace.
In contrast, Brent crude declined by over nine percent in the fourth quarter, while cocoa and bauxite prices softened amid easing supply constraints and weaker downstream demand. MIIF highlights that these divergences demonstrate how geopolitical shocks increasingly interact with structural market dynamics rather than linearly driving prices.
The fund also points to the role of geopolitics in shaping policy and investment flows. Central banks continued to accumulate gold as a hedge against geopolitical and currency risks, while mining investment increasingly favoured jurisdictions considered politically stable and strategically important to energy transition supply chains.
In 2026, MIIF expects developments such as Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) production decisions, diplomatic efforts in major conflict zones and shifts in global trade policy to remain key variables influencing commodity markets, portfolio allocation and Ghana’s external sector performance.
The mining and commodities sector closed 2025 with gold as Ghana’s clear outperformer, as record prices and sustained investment in the precious metal offset weakening conditions in oil, bauxite and cocoa. MIIF data show gold prices rising from $3,858.96 per ounce at the end of the third quarter 2025 to $4,319.37 per ounce by year end, an 11.9 percent quarter on quarter gain, helping sustain capital inflows even as Brent crude, cocoa and bauxite corrected.
This divergence has reinforced gold’s role as the anchor of Ghana’s extractive economy amid softer bulk commodity markets and delays in new projects, particularly lithium, constraining broader mining momentum.
At the company level, MIIF highlighted an active fourth quarter for Asante Gold Corporation, which advanced exploration at its Bibiani and Chirano mines. The oxygen plant came online on December 3, 2025 and the Aachen Reactor is now running as designed. The company strengthened its balance sheet by entering into an agreement with underwriters for a bought deal private placement increased to 97.5 million common shares at a price of 1.60 Canadian dollars per common share for aggregate gross proceeds of 156 million Canadian dollars. The company has restructured certain obligations owing to Kinross by paying to Kinross an aggregate of $53 million in cash, issuing to Kinross an aggregate of 36,927,650 common shares at a deemed issue price of 1.45 Canadian dollars per common share, and issuing to Kinross a secured convertible debenture in a principal amount of approximately $80 million. Completion of these transactions is expected in the first quarter 2026.
In lithium, MIIF noted that development remained strategically important but uneven. Atlantic Lithium advanced cautiously as parliamentary ratification of its Ewoyaa mining lease remained pending, while weaker lithium prices reinforced a focus on cost control and liquidity. The company secured up to 4.28 million pounds sterling from Long State Investments, extending its runway while continuing early stage exploration in Côte d’Ivoire.
Meanwhile, Newmont Corporation achieved commercial production at Ahafo North, with output projected at approximately 50,000 ounces in 2025 and a ramp up to 275,000 to 325,000 ounces annually over a 13 year mine life, reinforcing the company’s Ghana presence alongside Ahafo South.
Across other commodities, lithium spodumene concentrate prices rebounded sharply from $830 per tonne to about $1,405 per tonne, driven by stronger electric vehicle (EV) demand visibility and renewed financing activity, although volatility remained elevated. Silver also posted strong gains in the fourth quarter, while manganese prices recorded modest increases.
By contrast, Brent crude remained under pressure amid rising supply and subdued demand expectations. Cocoa and bauxite prices declined nine percent each quarter on quarter, reflecting softer processing demand following earlier 2025 peaks.
MIIF notes that while gold continues to anchor Ghana’s mining sector, the broader commodity landscape reflects growing imbalances. The report stresses that translating favourable price cycles into diversified output and sustainable economic gains remains a key challenge for the country’s extractive industries in 2026.
