Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson expects Ghana’s inflation to stay below 5% by the end of 2026, even as Middle East tensions threaten global fuel and commodity prices.
Forson made the forecast in an interview with Bloomberg, days after the country’s long disinflation run paused. Headline inflation rose to 3.4% in April from 3.2% in March, its first increase since December 2024.
The minister identified the Middle East conflict as the main risk to the outlook. He warned that it could lift the cost of petroleum products and fertiliser and disrupt supply chains. Forson said the availability of goods was not yet a concern, but prices could climb.
He argued that Ghana can absorb the shock. The minister pointed to sizeable foreign exchange reserves, rising gold output, high gold prices and the absence of fuel subsidies as buffers against external pressure. “Ghana is in a comfortable position to be able to withstand those shocks,” he said.
Forson expects inflation to face some pressure in the coming months but to remain under 5% by year end. He said recovering export earnings reinforce that view, noting that cocoa prices have begun rising again after a dip and that Ghana also earns foreign exchange as an oil exporter.
The forecast would keep inflation beneath the Bank of Ghana (BoG) medium term target band of 6 to 10%. Prices have run below that floor for much of 2026 after falling from double digit levels.
The central bank has adopted a more cautious stance. In May, the BoG held its policy rate at 14% after a series of cuts earlier in the year, citing inflation risks from the Middle East conflict and rising crude oil prices. Policymakers warned that higher energy costs and supply chain disruptions could erode recent gains in price stability.
The bank reported gross international reserves of about $14.4 billion in mid May, equal to roughly 5.7 months of import cover.
