Nigeria’s Finance Minister Wale Edun has declared that the country’s economy has turned a decisive corner, citing what he described as a dramatic drop in rice prices from approximately N120,000 per 50-kilogram bag last year to around N80,000 currently, though market surveys reveal a more complex picture across different regions and brands.
In an opinion piece titled “Nigeria Turning Towards Prosperity” shared by presidential adviser Bayo Onanuga, Edun acknowledged that while progress has been made under President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the country still faces tough realities. He presented the rice price reduction as evidence that food inflation, which he called the heaviest burden since currency depreciation and fuel subsidy removal, is beginning to ease.
Recent market checks by the News Agency of Nigeria across major Lagos markets including Oyingbo, Arena, FESTAC Town and Mile 12 showed that 50-kilogram bags currently sell for between N55,000 and N70,000, depending on brand and location. Local rice that sold for around N85,000 in January now goes for between N60,000 and N70,000, while foreign brands have dropped from N95,000 to between N65,000 and N75,000.
The minister painted an optimistic macroeconomic picture. He noted that GDP grew by 4.23 percent in the second quarter of 2025, inflation moderated to 18.02 percent after six consecutive months of decline, and foreign reserves rose above $43 billion, the highest since 2019. The exchange rate has also stabilized, with the gap between official and parallel markets narrowing to about one percent, down from a peak of nearly 70 percent.
Yet the narrative around rice prices tells a more nuanced story than government officials suggest. Multiple factors contributed to the recent price decline, including increased imports through reopened land borders, particularly from Benin and Niger Republic, combined with strong harvest seasons from northern farms that created a market glut.
The federal government’s 150-day duty-free import window for rice, maize, sorghum and wheat, which started in July 2024 and officially closed in early 2025, unleashed tons of grain that continued filtering into Nigerian markets months later. This policy decision, while lowering consumer prices, sparked fierce criticism from local farmers and millers who argue their businesses cannot compete with subsidized imports.
The All Farmers’ Association of Nigeria maintains that waves of cheap imports, not successful economic reforms, caused the current price drop. Farmer representatives point out that the cost of fertilizer and herbicides has more than doubled since last year, pushing some smallholder farmers out of business entirely despite government claims of supporting agricultural production.
Traders across Lagos markets expressed mixed feelings about the price crash. Mrs. Precious Okoro, a rice dealer at Arena Market, lamented being forced to sell at below her purchase price, noting she bought several bags at N80,000 and N85,000 early this year and now must sell them for as low as N65,000.
Consumers naturally welcomed the relief. Mrs. Andriana Okoromaro shared her appreciation, saying she used to buy half a bag because prices were too expensive, but now can afford a full bag for her family. Another consumer, Mrs. Oluwaseun Alade, expressed hope that prices would remain low during the festive season, as rice is essential for Christmas and New Year celebrations.
Muda Yusuf, chief executive of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, told media outlets the government needs to create balance through requisite incentives for businesses to avoid collapse. He explained the situation reflects a conflict of interest, with Nigerians wanting cheaper rice while business owners need higher profit margins for sustainability.
The timing of Edun’s optimistic assessment raises questions given Nigeria’s broader economic struggles. By October 2025, the naira had plunged to over N1,470 per dollar, reflecting deep structural weaknesses and painful adjustment processes that have made daily existence a struggle for ordinary Nigerians.
The removal of fuel subsidies in May 2023 pushed petrol prices from an average of N238 per liter to between N910 and N950 in 2025, dramatically increasing transportation and production costs across the economy. These inflationary pressures continue affecting food prices beyond rice, including transportation costs that determine how much consumers ultimately pay at market stalls.
Edun disclosed that 8.1 million households had received direct cash support to cushion the impact of economic reforms, with plans to reach 15 million households once identity verification challenges are resolved. He also pointed to the Nigeria Tax Act signed in June 2025, which aims to broaden the tax base and introduce a more progressive regime that shields lower-income earners while adjusting rates for higher earners.
Critics, however, warn that recent price drops may prove temporary. Some rice farmers and traders predict prices could bounce back by December as seasonal demand during the festive period increases and if traders hold back supply. The current decline represents a market correction following months of inflation-driven spikes that saw rice prices rise from N65,000 in January 2025 to peaks of N90,000 to N100,000 per bag by mid-year.
Global factors also played a role in Nigeria’s rice market dynamics. India, the world’s top rice exporter, reversed export restrictions earlier this year, flooding the global market and pushing international prices down. Nigeria, as a major importer, benefited from these cheaper global stocks, though domestic pressures from high production costs and persistent inflation continue dominating price trends.
The minister’s emphasis on macroeconomic indicators contrasts sharply with lived realities on the ground. Mrs. Ngozi Okolie, a consumer, noted that the price fall isn’t only linked to increased supply but also to reduced purchasing power among Nigerians, which has lowered demand. She observed that people don’t have much money even with lower prices, and the economy remains slow, so sales aren’t what they used to be.
Edun himself acknowledged this disconnect in his opinion piece, writing that the economy is ultimately about people, not statistics, and that millions of Nigerians measure progress by the cost of food, transport and other necessities. He expressed keen awareness of this reality while making the case that targeted measures are beginning to ease pressure.
The sustainability of these price reductions remains uncertain. Policy inconsistencies have long plagued Nigeria’s agricultural sector, with rice millers particularly vocal about how selective import duty waivers threaten the viability of domestic production capacity. The country has sufficient rice mills to feed the nation, yet these facilities often operate below capacity because cheaper imports undercut local producers.
Oil production has reportedly recovered to 1.68 million barrels per day, including condensates, with security improvements reducing oil theft. The government is also attracting private capital through public-private partnerships to address infrastructure needs that public funds alone cannot meet.
Whether Nigeria has genuinely turned a corner economically or merely experienced temporary relief from import policies designed to quickly lower food prices before an election cycle remains an open question. The test will come in the months ahead when import waivers stay closed, global rice prices potentially rise again, and domestic producers must compete without policy support that makes their operations commercially viable.
For now, consumers are grateful for any respite from the relentless food inflation that has characterized the past two years. Traders worry about their investments and sustainability. Farmers feel abandoned by policies that favor imports over local production incentives. And government officials point to macroeconomic statistics while acknowledging the statistics don’t tell the full story of how ordinary Nigerians are experiencing economic reforms.
The coming months, particularly the December festive season when demand traditionally spikes, will reveal whether the Finance Minister’s optimism about Nigeria’s economic direction matches reality or whether the country is simply cycling through another phase of policy-driven price volatility that does little to address underlying structural challenges in food production, distribution and affordability.
