The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point today, lowering the federal funds rate to a range between 3.75% and 4%, but a leading financial executive predicts it will be the last reduction for many months.
Markets overwhelmingly anticipate the rate cut, with analysts assigning a 99% probability to the move. The announcement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 29, followed by a press conference from Chair Jerome Powell at 2:30 p.m.
Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, a global financial advisory firm, said the central bank will likely adopt a more cautious stance after today’s decision. “The cut itself is priced in,” Green said.
The shifting focus reflects changing economic conditions. Consumer price index data released last week showed headline inflation at 3.0% annually and core inflation also at 3.0%, while employment data from August revealed just 22,000 new jobs added and unemployment at 4.3%, the highest level since 2021.
Green explained that the balance of risks has shifted from inflation concerns to employment worries. The weak hiring momentum has changed the framework for monetary policy decisions, he said.
This would be the second consecutive rate cut following a similar reduction in September 2025, when the Federal Reserve began easing its monetary policy stance after maintaining higher rates to combat inflation.
Barclays economists expect Powell to reiterate in his press conference that economic conditions have changed little since September, though he may emphasize increased attention to labor market data.
Green believes investors have become accustomed to expecting continuous rate cuts and may need to adjust their expectations. He suggested that equities in interest sensitive sectors could pause, though a slower easing path supports longer term market health.
The deVere chief said a more patient Federal Reserve approach would likely support the US dollar for an extended period, creating both opportunities and challenges for international investments.
According to an October survey by CNBC, 92% of respondents believe the Fed will cut at this meeting, though only 66% believe it should, reflecting some disagreement about the appropriate policy stance.
Green concluded by stating that the Federal Reserve will want evidence rather than instinct before implementing another rate cut, possibly delaying the next reduction until the second quarter of 2026 or later.
