Climate-driven threats could push several African nations back into conflict if governments fail to integrate environmental data into security planning, a leading American expert warned Thursday at the Munich Security Conference.
Erin Sikorsky, Director of the Center for Climate and Security, told NewsGhana in an exclusive interview that three distinct African regions require immediate attention from policymakers and international donors. The interview took place on February 13, 2026, during the opening day of the 62nd Munich Security Conference in Germany.
Sudan emerged as Sikorsky’s most urgent concern. Climate hazards are now compounding an already explosive security situation in the country, where conflict has displaced millions since fighting erupted in April 2023. The combination of environmental stress and active warfare creates conditions that security experts describe as a multiplier effect, where each crisis worsens the other.
Nigeria and the broader Sahel region represent the second category of risk. Extremist and terrorist groups operating across West Africa have begun exploiting drier growing seasons and agricultural degradation to expand their recruitment, according to Sikorsky. Economic strain caused by failing harvests makes vulnerable populations easier targets for armed groups seeking new members.
East Africa, particularly Ethiopia, constitutes the third area of concern. Ethiopia recently emerged from civil war in the Tigray region, but changing precipitation patterns are now placing significant strain on farmers across different parts of the country. Those environmental pressures could contribute to conflict re-emerging if they are not managed carefully, Sikorsky explained.
The climate security expert emphasized that military and security institutions need access to better data about climate risks, including information on precipitation patterns and extreme storms. With improved data, security planners can make more informed decisions not only about protecting equipment and infrastructure, but also about broader strategic risk calculations.
Climate should be treated as a core variable in security planning, not as a side issue, Sikorsky stated. She noted that some donors understand the connection between climate change and conflict, but many lack sufficient resources to address these challenges proactively.
When asked about early warning indicators that African governments should monitor, Sikorsky identified two critical signs. The first involves farmers struggling to sustain their livelihoods due to environmental changes. The second concerns populations being forced to move internally within their countries. Both indicators suggest that instability and potential conflict could be emerging.
Sikorsky recommended that African governments invest more heavily in early warning systems and improve cross-border collaboration. Regional institutions like the African Union play a crucial role because climate-related security threats do not respect national boundaries, she noted. These threats overlap across regions, requiring governments to work together more effectively.
The interview occurred as the Munich Security Conference Report 2026 highlighted a collapse in development and humanitarian assistance from Western donors. The United States has cut foreign aid by over 80 percent, while Germany, the United Kingdom, and France have announced reductions ranging from 37 to 50 percent.
These funding cuts arrive at a moment when climate pressures are intensifying across Africa. The combination of reduced international support and growing environmental stress creates what security analysts describe as a perfect storm for instability.
Sikorsky’s analysis reflects growing concern among security professionals that climate change represents more than an environmental issue. For countries already managing fragile peace agreements or active conflicts, shifts in rainfall patterns or agricultural productivity can determine whether communities remain stable or descend back into violence.
The Center for Climate and Security, where Sikorsky serves as Director, operates as a non-partisan policy institute examining connections between climate change and global security. The organization works with military officials, policymakers, and researchers to translate climate science into security planning.
Nearly 50 heads of state and over 450 decision-makers gathered at the Munich conference, which runs through February 15. The annual gathering serves as a major forum for international security discussions, with this year’s agenda dominated by questions about the future of the international order and development cooperation.
