Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of collaborating with a hardline faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in an alleged plan to wage war against Addis Ababa, according to a letter from the foreign affairs ministry to UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres obtained Wednesday. The accusations represent a dramatic reversal in relations between the two countries, which fought together against the TPLF during Ethiopia’s recent civil war.
In the letter dated October 2, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs alleged that the Eritrean government and TPLF are working together under a new alliance called Tsimdo. Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos wrote that the collusion between the two parties has become more evident over recent months, claiming they’re actively preparing military action.
The ministry also alleged that Eritrea and TPLF forces were involved in a recent offensive by Fano militia aimed at capturing Woldiya, a major town in the Amhara Region. Ethiopia claimed that TPLF commanders and fighters participated directly in the operation, though these allegations haven’t been independently verified.
The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before being sidelined when Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018. The organization was banned from political activity following the devastating two year civil war in northern Ethiopia that ended with a peace deal in November 2022.
The irony of Ethiopia’s accusations isn’t lost on observers familiar with the region’s complex politics. During that brutal conflict, Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces against the TPLF, with both nations viewing the Tigrayan group as their common enemy. The alleged alliance between former adversaries marks a stunning shift in regional dynamics.
The complaint escalates tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia over Ethiopia’s declared ambition to secure access to a Red Sea port. Since becoming landlocked after Eritrea’s independence in 1993, Ethiopia has sought maritime access, with Abiy recently making controversial statements about the country’s need for port facilities.
Relations between the two neighbors have deteriorated sharply in recent months. Ethiopia’s growing cooperation with Somaliland, which has offered port access in exchange for possible recognition, has angered both Eritrea and Somalia. The shifting alliances have created new fault lines in an already volatile region.
The accusations come amid broader instability across the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia faces ongoing insurgencies in multiple regions, including the Amhara area where Fano militia have challenged federal authority. The country’s internal conflicts complicate its external security concerns.
Eritrea, one of the world’s most secretive nations, hasn’t publicly responded to Ethiopia’s allegations. President Isaias Afwerki’s government rarely engages with international media or responds to diplomatic accusations, maintaining tight control over information flowing in and out of the country.
The TPLF itself is reportedly divided between factions, with some leaders seeking to work within Ethiopia’s federal system while others allegedly maintain separatist ambitions. Ethiopia’s letter to the UN appears to reference this hardline faction specifically, though the organization’s internal politics remain opaque.
Regional analysts worry that renewed conflict could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. The 2020 to 2022 Tigray war killed hundreds of thousands of people and displaced millions, creating humanitarian catastrophes that persist today. Another major conflict would likely produce similar devastation.
The November 2022 peace agreement that ended the Tigray war included provisions for disarmament and political reconciliation. Implementation has progressed slowly, with tensions remaining high in northern Ethiopia. Ethiopian authorities have accused TPLF elements of failing to fully comply with disarmament requirements.
Ethiopia’s decision to take these allegations to the UN suggests Addis Ababa views the situation as serious enough to warrant international attention. Whether the UN Security Council or other bodies will take action remains unclear, as the organization has limited leverage over either Ethiopia or Eritrea.
The growing tension raises fears of renewed instability in a region already burdened by conflict, drought, and humanitarian crises. Multiple countries in the Horn of Africa face food insecurity, while climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities. Another major war would compound these challenges catastrophically.
International observers will be watching for any evidence supporting Ethiopia’s allegations or for responses from Eritrea and TPLF representatives. Without independent verification, assessing the validity of Ethiopia’s claims remains difficult, though the accusations themselves signal dangerous deterioration in regional relationships.
