Ghana faces mounting fiscal pressures despite recent macroeconomic gains, with converging debt obligations and ambitious spending plans threatening to undermine stability gains achieved under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, according to development consultancy EM Advisory.
The firm’s review of the 2026 budget highlighted three critical challenges: substantial debt maturities peaking in 2027, uncertain financing for flagship initiatives including the Big Push and 24-hour economy programmes, and risks surrounding Ghana’s potential return to international capital markets following its debt restructuring.
Dr. Abudu Abdul-Ganiyu, Managing Partner and Development Policy Lead at EM Advisory, described the convergence of these obligations as among the most significant fiscal tests Ghana has encountered in ten years. He noted that while government has achieved credible stabilisation, with a projected primary surplus of 1.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a fiscal deficit near 1.5 percent and inflation declining to single digits, these achievements remain vulnerable without disciplined stewardship.
The country confronts external debt repayments totalling approximately GH¢20 billion in 2026, rising sharply to GH¢50.3 billion in 2027 and GH¢45.8 billion in 2028. These obligations coincide with substantial domestic refinancing requirements, including roughly GH¢137 billion in Treasury bills rolled over annually and GH¢71 billion needed for the 2026 budget.
Ghana is positioned to exit the IMF’s US$3 billion Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme when it ends in May 2026, adding urgency to the need for sustained fiscal discipline beyond external oversight.
Dr. Abdul-Ganiyu expressed concern that maturing debt figures require serious advance planning. He acknowledged that while the sinking fund provides some cushion through consistent contributions, available resources remain limited relative to the scale of obligations. Without adequate provision, he warned, the situation could escalate into a major problem by 2027.
The consultancy also questioned whether Ghana’s current funding capacity can support the government’s growth agenda. The 2026 budget allocates GH¢30 billion toward the Big Push infrastructure initiative, with expanded funding for oil palm industrialisation and the proposed 24-hour economy. However, Dr. Abdul-Ganiyu argued these ambitions must be weighed against constrained fiscal realities, particularly where feasibility studies, financial appraisals and risk assessments remain incomplete.
He emphasised that proper project preparation proves crucial to avoiding past mistakes where programmes ran out of funds and were left incomplete. Such outcomes, he said, are costly and erode public value. Transparent project blueprints and well-structured public-private partnership arrangements will be essential for attracting private sector financing. Without clear documentation, robust term sheets and realistic execution timelines, investors will remain reluctant to participate.
Regarding Ghana’s potential return to Eurobond markets, Dr. Abdul-Ganiyu urged caution despite persistent expectations. He acknowledged that Ghana cannot rely solely on domestic borrowing and must balance domestic and external sources. However, he stressed that market re-entry must be based on improved indicators rather than pressure or sentiment.
He identified steady primary surpluses, a credible path to debt sustainability, favourable credit rating actions and durable expenditure discipline as essential preconditions for successful re-entry. A premature market appearance could expose Ghana to prohibitively high interest rates or signal desperation to investors, undermining credibility built since 2025. The country should present a coherent debt management narrative backed by real data, clear project pipelines and proof of institutional discipline.
Dr. Abdul-Ganiyu stressed that market response depends on the ability to pay. When indicators are strong, the market will respond favourably. However, expectations must be managed so government is not pushed into unnecessary spending or premature borrowing.
These concerns emerge despite notable macroeconomic improvements. Inflation continues declining, the cedi has stabilised relative to recent years and growth is projected at 4.8 percent in 2026. Revenue is also expected to rise to 16.8 percent of GDP.
EM Advisory noted that revenue projections present a significant area of concern. The budget assumes total revenue of 16.8 percent of GDP, up from historical averages around 15 percent. This 1.8 percentage point increase would be remarkable if achievable, yet the firm noted that specifics of how this windfall will materialise remain frustratingly vague.
The consultancy’s assessment comes as Ghana navigates a critical transition period, balancing the need to sustain macroeconomic stability with pressures to deliver on ambitious development promises. How government manages these competing demands will shape the country’s economic trajectory in coming years.
