Ghana’s currency appreciation, while impressive in 2025, will remain fragile without stronger local ownership of production and value creation across key economic sectors, economists and industry leaders warned at the Ghana Economic Forum in Accra on Wednesday, October 30, 2025.
The forum, themed “Currency Stability: A Reset for Sustainable Economic Growth,” brought together policymakers, business leaders, and economists who argued that recent macroeconomic gains must translate into structural reforms allowing citizens and local enterprises to hold larger stakes in national wealth.
The cedi has emerged as one of the world’s best performing currencies this year, appreciating approximately 37 percent against the US dollar, with inflation falling to 9.4 percent as of September 2025. However, panellists at the first plenary session on Finance and Economy emphasized that short term macroeconomic success doesn’t guarantee long term resilience.
Joe Jackson, Chief Executive Officer of Dalex Finance, said Ghana’s currency gains reflect improved fiscal discipline and external conditions, but these factors aren’t sustainable without deeper reorientation of economic ownership. He noted that much of Ghana’s export activity continues to yield limited domestic value, with the country retaining less than ten percent of value from non oil exports when gold and cocoa are excluded.
“We are exporting raw wealth and importing poverty,” Jackson stated, calling for government to adopt revenue retention strategies similar to Cocobod’s approach in other sectors, ensuring larger shares of foreign exchange earnings remain in Ghana.
Abena Amoah, Managing Director of Ghana Stock Exchange, argued that any conversation about resetting the economy must include redefining ownership itself. She explained that Ghana’s ten percent carried interest in gold and similar resource based investments yields little tangible benefit because most state owned enterprises in extractive and manufacturing sectors are unprofitable or underperforming.
Amoah advocated for production linked equity models in strategic sectors, particularly gold, cocoa, and oil, allowing the state to hold part of actual output rather than symbolic ownership stakes. This approach would enable government to build real asset reserves and support the cedi with production based value.
She cited MTN’s listing of 30 percent of its shares on the Ghana Stock Exchange as part of local content requirements. That decision kept over GH¢1 billion in the country through dividends paid to Ghanaian investors, representing what economic ownership actually looks like, Amoah noted. She compared this to the more than US$2 billion that left Ghana for cryptocurrency investments in 2024 alone.
“We cannot build a resilient currency on borrowed capital and imported production. We must own what we produce and produce what we own,” Amoah emphasized, highlighting how capital markets can retain national value and reduce dependence on external borrowing.
The Ghana Stock Exchange Managing Director recalled that when Ghana was locked out of international capital markets, domestic investors shouldered the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme’s impact. She cautioned against fiscal measures that disincentivize local investment, citing capital gains tax reintroduction on securities as a setback to investor confidence and long term wealth accumulation.
Humphrey Ayim-Darko, President of the Association of Ghana Industries, said weak local content in government procurement continues undermining domestic production and foreign exchange stability. He cited examples such as Cocobod’s continued importation of cocoa sacks that could easily be produced locally, arguing that state procurement choices contradict industrialization goals.
“We cannot talk about supporting local industry while using taxpayer money to buy imported goods the country can produce,” Ayim-Darko stated, calling for deliberate enforcement of local preference clauses in the Public Procurement Act. He argued government purchasing power should stimulate domestic production, strengthen supply chains, and reduce import dependency.
Ebenezer Amankwah-Minkah, Executive Director of the Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, noted that while institutional reforms such as establishing Goldbod have improved value retention, smuggling and informal trade continue undermining such measures. He argued Ghana’s informal sector, which dominates employment and entrepreneurship, must be formally integrated into the value retention framework.
Dr. Ishmael Dodoo, Director and Head of Innovative Finance at the 24 Hour Economy Secretariat, tied these discussions to government’s broader structural transformation agenda. He said the Grow24 strategy underpinning the 24 Hour Economy initiative is designed to convert macroeconomic stability into productive transformation by building local capacity and value chains.
According to Dodoo, over 300,000 hectares of land have been secured for strategic investment across major growth corridors, including cassava, soy, rice, maize, and sugarcane. Government has organized 60,000 smallholder cooperatives and signed investment agreements with more than ten major partners to boost agro processing and manufacturing for export.
Professor Patrick Opoku Asuming of the University of Ghana Business School stated that while macroeconomic policies have restored confidence, long term stability depends on the economy’s structural transformation. He called for continued fiscal prudence, improved tax compliance, and sustained investment in productive sectors that generate export value and employment.
The cedi’s appreciation has been buoyed by a combination of prudent fiscal management, monetary restraint, and record gold prices. The Bank of Ghana’s direct market interventions, including a $490 million forex injection in April 2025, have further supported the currency’s appreciation.
The $3 billion Extended Credit Facility from the IMF has restored economic confidence, with an anticipated $370 million tranche expected soon. These measures have been validated by S&P Global Ratings’ upgrade of Ghana’s credit status from Selective Default to CCC+.
However, speakers warned that these external supports provide temporary relief without addressing fundamental structural weaknesses. Ghana’s import dependence creates continuous demand for foreign currency, putting downward pressure on the cedi. Limited export diversification beyond gold, cocoa, and oil constrains foreign exchange earnings.
Vice President Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang, speaking at the Bank of Ghana’s Cedi@60 anniversary launch on Tuesday, October 29, echoed similar sentiments about value addition’s importance. She emphasized that to make the recovery durable, Ghana must add value to what it produces, empower small businesses and youth, and build sustainable currency value through discipline, accountability, and national cooperation.
The forum discussions reflect growing consensus among economists that Ghana’s economic transformation requires moving beyond celebrating macroeconomic stability to institutionalizing it through real production. The challenge now is whether policymakers will implement the structural reforms necessary to convert temporary currency gains into lasting economic resilience.
Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson has maintained that the cedi’s stability and appreciation is not a “nine day wonder” but the product of careful, well thought out planning. His ministry recently secured staff level agreement with the International Monetary Fund on the fourth review of its IMF supported programme.
The Ghana Economic Forum, organized by the Business & Financial Times, brought together Ghana’s policy royalty to examine how to move beyond short term fixes toward long term competitiveness. The event’s timing coincides with critical debates about Ghana’s post IMF economic outlook and how to sustain gains achieved under the Extended Credit Facility programme.
