Africa’s richest man and Dangote Group Chairman Aliko Dangote has projected that the Nigerian naira could appreciate to N1,100 against the United States dollar before the end of 2026, citing government import restriction policies and structural economic reforms as the primary drivers.
Dangote made the projection on Tuesday, February 17, at the launch of the National Industrial Policy in Abuja, attended by Vice President Kashim Shettima, Secretary to the Government of the Federation George Akume, and senior industry officials. The naira traded at N1,335.95 per dollar at the official market and around N1,380 at the parallel market on the day of the event.
Dangote told the gathering that manufacturers were already feeling the benefit of the Tinubu administration’s economic direction but acknowledged the currency’s appreciation creates a policy dilemma. A stronger naira, he explained, would push down the prices of goods in an economy heavily dependent on imports, which could undermine the government’s revenue base and work against the very industrialisation the policy seeks to promote.
He urged the Federal Government to complement its industrial framework with stronger protection for local investors, improved infrastructure and reliable power supply, which he described as the single most persistent constraint facing manufacturers.
The remarks come against a backdrop of renewed investor confidence. Nigerian equities posted the world’s second-best dollar returns in 2026, rising 31 percent and recovering an estimated $21 billion in market value lost following the naira’s steep devaluation in 2024. Total market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange Limited now stands at approximately $84 billion, about 58 percent higher than pre-devaluation levels.
Dangote’s projection follows a similar forecast from First HoldCo Chairman Femi Otedola, who predicted the naira could trade below N1,000 to the dollar before year-end, attributing the expected gain to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching its full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. Otedola said the refinery’s ability to supply up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit daily would shift Nigeria’s energy narrative and significantly conserve foreign exchange.
Vice President Shettima, speaking at the same event, noted that Dangote Cement alone paid N900 billion in taxes in 2025, underscoring the private sector’s outsized role in the government’s industrial ambitions.
