Cocoa prices are struggling to find firm footing after one of the most dramatic collapses in the commodity’s modern history, with the benchmark hovering near $2,900 per tonne as of early March 2026, a level that represents a fall of roughly 70% from the historic highs above $12,000 touched in 2024.
Prices retreated to around $2,900 per tonne this week after a brief technical rebound lifted them above $3,000 on March 2. The underlying market tone remains weak, with favorable weather conditions across West Africa underpinning stronger production prospects, while South America, particularly Ecuador, is steadily expanding its share of global output.
Hedgepoint Global Markets forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 365,000 tonnes for the 2025/26 season, while world production for 2024/25 has been revised upward to 4.728 million tonnes, 8.4% above the 4.362 million tonnes recorded in 2023/24. On the demand side, slower global consumption is fuelling inventory buildups worldwide, capping the scope for a sustained price recovery in the near term.
The price collapse has had direct consequences for Ghana’s cocoa farmers. A significant market disconnect emerged earlier in the year when official farmgate prices remained elevated while international prices were falling sharply, leading to a decline in global demand and a concerning buildup of unsold stocks in West African warehouses. Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) disclosed that international buyers had increasingly turned away from Ghana’s cocoa due to higher prices relative to beans from competing origins, leaving approximately 50,000 metric tonnes of unsold cocoa sitting at Ghanaian ports.
The pressure eventually compelled Ghana to reduce its farmgate price to align with global realities. Ivory Coast followed weeks later, launching a strategic operation on January 29, 2026, to buy back thousands of tonnes of unsold cocoa sitting in warehouses and at ports since November 2025.
Despite the current weakness, longer-term structural forecasts remain cautiously elevated. ING projects London cocoa will average around £3,400 per tonne in 2026, while J.P. Morgan maintains a medium-term view of around $6,000 per tonne, citing ongoing multi-season supply constraints and gradual West African recovery. Rabobank expects inventories to rebuild rather than tighten again in the near term, suggesting prices will trend downward from recent peaks but are unlikely to return to pre-2023 historical levels.
For consumers, the disconnect between futures markets and retail shelves remains visible, with US chocolate prices still up 14% in early 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, reflecting the stickiness of cost adjustments made by manufacturers during the peak price cycle. For Ghana’s farmers, however, the more immediate concern is whether the international recovery, whenever it comes, will be strong enough to translate into a higher farmgate price before the next main crop season.
