Cocoa futures continue to trade near historic highs at $9,500 to $9,600 per tonne as West African supply challenges and rising production costs offset signs of a gradual market recovery.
The International Cocoa Organization reports global production for the 2024-25 season is expected to rise 7.8% year-over-year to 4.84 million tonnes, though this follows last season’s 14% decline.
In Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top producer, mid-crop arrivals have fallen 39.1% compared to last year, while Ghana has officially revised its production forecast downward to 600,000 tonnes. “The supply recovery remains fragile,” noted a commodities analyst at S&P Global. “Aging trees, disease pressure, and competition from illegal mining continue to constrain output.”
Market volatility persists as weather patterns and regulatory changes add uncertainty. While improved rainfall has aided some growing regions, meteorologists warn shifting Atlantic weather systems could disrupt harvests. Meanwhile, implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is forcing producers to invest in traceability systems, potentially limiting near-term supply.
On the demand side, global grindings have declined 3-5% year-over-year as manufacturers adjust to higher prices through recipe changes and smaller packaging. However, chocolate consumption has proven relatively resilient, with the stock-to-grindings ratio holding at 31.8%. “We’re seeing a bifurcation in the market,” said a Nestlé executive. “Premium chocolate demand remains strong while mass-market products face more pressure.”
Colombian producer Casa Luker illustrates how some companies are adapting. The B Corp-certified firm has invested heavily in sustainable agroforestry systems, with 15,000 farmers participating in its deforestation-free program. This vertical integration provides some insulation from West African supply shocks while meeting growing buyer demand for traceable cocoa.
Analysts project prices could decline 13% in 2025 if weather conditions stabilize and production rebounds, though risks remain elevated. The market’s sensitivity to supply disruptions suggests continued volatility, particularly with Côte d’Ivoire’s presidential elections approaching and climate patterns becoming less predictable.
