Global cocoa markets are caught between two competing forces this week, with geopolitical shipping risks briefly driving futures higher while weakening consumer demand and a structural supply surplus are pulling prices back toward the lower end of their recent trading range.
New York cocoa futures are currently trading at approximately $3,336 per tonne, within a daily range of $3,237 to $3,431, down sharply from a 52-week high above $11,280 per tonne recorded during the historic 2024 supply crisis. The market has lost more than half its value since that peak as supply expectations improved and demand softened globally.
The Middle East conflict has introduced a fresh layer of cost anxiety. The war’s most direct impact on cocoa is indirect but potentially severe. Cocoa from West Africa is not shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, but a sustained closure of the waterway would trigger a global freight and insurance crisis affecting all commodity routes, increasing the cost of moving cocoa from any origin to any destination.
Yet the same instability that threatens costs is also undermining demand. Swiss chocolatier Lindt and Sprüngli cut its 2026 organic sales growth forecast to between 4% and 6%, from a previous projection of 6% to 8%, citing weaker consumer confidence and reduced tourism linked to Middle East unrest. The company’s Chief Executive Adalbert Lechner noted that consumers had clearly pulled back spending on premium chocolate products once the regional tensions escalated. Despite the softer forward outlook, Lindt still delivered strong 2025 results with organic sales rising 12.4% to CHF 5.92 billion, largely on the back of price increases made during the 2024 cocoa cost surge.
On the supply side, the picture remains complicated for West Africa’s two dominant producers. Ghana cut its official farmgate cocoa price by nearly 30% in February 2026, while Ivory Coast announced a 57% price reduction effective March 2026. Both moves aim to make their beans competitive on world markets again after a standoff in which major chocolate manufacturers refused to purchase at official prices sitting above prevailing global levels. Ivory Coast had accumulated approximately 200,000 metric tonnes of unsold cocoa by end-March, with beans stranded at ports and inland warehouses as buyers held out.
Ghana is currently paying approximately $2,100 per tonne equivalent to farmers, while Ivory Coast’s mid-crop rate is now between $1.45 and $1.81 per kilogram, meaning Ghana’s farmgate price is now materially higher than its neighbour’s, reversing the smuggling incentive that had pushed Ghanaian beans across the border into Ivorian warehouses for much of the earlier season.
Year-end median forecasts have New York cocoa futures closing 2026 at around $3,350 per tonne, reflecting only marginal upside from current levels but still roughly 45% below where prices ended 2025. Analysts point to expected production increases from Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Ecuador as the primary downward pressure, with geopolitical volatility the main wildcard capable of temporarily lifting prices above the prevailing range.
The longer-term structural picture adds to the cautious outlook. ICE-certified cocoa inventories have climbed to a six-month high of over 2.15 million bags, indicating ample nearby supply in exchange warehouses, and the International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) forecasts a global surplus of 75,000 metric tonnes for the 2024/25 season, with larger surpluses of around 287,000 metric tonnes projected for 2025/26. Meanwhile, demand destruction from two years of elevated chocolate prices is becoming entrenched, with manufacturers increasingly reformulating products with lower cocoa content and consumers shifting spending toward non-chocolate alternatives.
For Ghana and Ivory Coast, the pricing adjustment cycle now underway represents a painful correction after the commodity windfall of 2024. The key variables ahead are the West African mid-crop results between April and June, the trajectory of global freight costs, and chocolate demand during the second half of 2026 holiday sales cycles.
