Cocoa futures approached $10,000 per tonne in mid-June before declining to $9,618 by June 19.
This volatility stems from heightened smuggling from Côte d’Ivoire and a projected global supply shortfall exceeding 1 million tonnes for the 2024–25 season.
Illicit flows into neighboring countries have distorted port arrival data, inflating perceived deficits. Traders explicitly warn this creates “artificial tightness,” fueling speculative price surges and potential futures market backwardation.
Concurrently, climate disruptions, swollen shoot virus outbreaks, and illegal mining continue suppressing West African yields. Despite historic price levels, demand resilience persists: Second quarter cocoa grind volumes in Europe and Asia fell only 3% to 3.7%, less than analysts projected, indicating stable chocolate manufacturing.
Critical risks include obscured inventories from smuggling, persistent crop threats, West African political uncertainty, and broader macroeconomic pressures from global commodity markets and Middle East tensions.
Market fundamentals remain skewed by unreported supply flows, amplifying price sensitivity during structural deficits.
