China’s population fell by 3.39 million in 2025 to 1.405 billion, marking the fourth straight year of decline as the world’s second most populous nation grapples with record low birth rates that threaten its economic future.
The birth rate plummeted to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.39 in 2023, according to data released Monday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The figure represents the lowest birth rate since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
Only 7.92 million babies were born in 2025, a dramatic drop of 1.62 million, or 17 percent, compared with 2024, when births had shown a slight uptick. The 2024 increase proved temporary, attributed largely to couples embracing the culturally auspicious Year of the Dragon for childbirth. By contrast, 2025’s Year of the Snake is traditionally considered less favorable for offspring.
Deaths outpaced births substantially, with 11.31 million people dying in 2025 compared to 10.93 million in 2024. The country’s aging crisis deepened as well, with people aged over 60 now comprising 23 percent of the population, up one percentage point from 2024.
Once the world’s most populous country, China was overtaken by regional rival India in 2023. The demographic reversal follows decades of strict population control under the one child policy, which ran from approximately 1980 to 2015 and involved coercive measures including forced abortions and heavy financial penalties for families exceeding birth limits.
Beijing has deployed an array of pro natalist policies to reverse the decline. In January, the government imposed a 13 percent value added tax (VAT) on contraceptives including condoms and birth control pills, ending a tax exemption that had been in place since 1993. Meanwhile, childcare services, marriage related services, and elder care institutions received new tax exemptions.
The government allocated approximately 180 billion yuan to encourage births in 2026, including annual payments of 3,600 yuan (over $500) for each child under age three. Local governments have added their own incentives, from housing subsidies to extended parental leave.
The contraceptive tax has sparked backlash on Chinese social media, where users questioned its effectiveness and criticized renewed government interference in reproductive choices. Public health experts warn the measure could increase unintended pregnancies and sexually transmitted infections, particularly among economically disadvantaged populations.
Demographers remain skeptical about the impact of financial incentives alone. Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, noted that structural issues pose the greater challenge. Families cite soaring living costs, intense academic pressure, and fierce economic competition as primary reasons for avoiding or delaying parenthood.
China ranks among the world’s most expensive countries for raising children relative to average income, with costs estimated at approximately 538,000 yuan ($77,000) to age 18, according to research by the YuWa Population Research Institute. Urban costs run even higher.
The demographic crisis carries significant economic implications. United Nations projections suggest half of China’s population could be over 60 by 2100, potentially constraining economic growth and affecting the nation’s ability to compete with the United States economically and militarily.
Similar pro natalist policies have failed elsewhere in Asia. South Korea has spent over $200 billion since 2006 on programs to increase birth rates, yet its fertility rate continued dropping from 1.1 in 2006 to 0.7 in 2024. Singapore’s fertility rate similarly remains stuck at 1.2 despite years of subsidies and incentives.
China’s experience mirrors broader trends across East Asia, where rising education levels, changing attitudes toward marriage, rapid urbanization, and high child rearing costs have contributed to fertility declines. The country’s fertility rate now sits around 1.0 children per woman, far below the 2.1 replacement rate needed to maintain stable population levels.
The government has attempted to promote what it calls “positive views on marriage and childbearing” while reforming marriage registration procedures. In May 2025, China began allowing couples to marry anywhere in the country rather than only at their place of residence, streamlining the process.
Despite the urgent policy response, experts say reversing deeply entrenched demographic trends will require addressing fundamental structural issues including housing affordability, work life balance, educational costs, and broader economic security. Without such reforms, financial incentives alone appear unlikely to significantly alter family planning decisions.
