Brent crude pulled back to just above $104 per barrel on Thursday, easing from highs above $108 recorded earlier in the week as mixed diplomatic signals between Washington and Tehran injected fresh uncertainty into oil markets without meaningfully reducing fears of prolonged supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz.
The retreat reflects a market caught between two competing forces. Iran’s government publicly ruled out negotiations and rejected a proposed ceasefire on Wednesday, dismissing US diplomatic outreach and insisting on sovereign control over the critical shipping corridor. The White House, in contrast, maintained that channels for dialogue remain open and that a multi-point proposal has been conveyed to Tehran through third-party intermediaries.
The standoff has kept oil prices sharply elevated from the $67 to $69 range that prevailed before the conflict erupted in late February, but has also introduced enough ambiguity to cap further gains. Traders are reacting in real time to each diplomatic headline, amplifying volatility while keeping Brent anchored well above $100.
The underlying supply picture remains severe. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to unprotected transit, removing millions of barrels per day from global circulation. The waterway handles roughly 22 percent of the world’s oil supply. Some tankers continue to move under Iranian naval escort, but the broader disruption has strained import-dependent economies including South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines, where fuel shortages are intensifying.
Analysts caution that prices could resume climbing if diplomatic efforts collapse entirely, particularly if the strait remains constrained through the weekend. Any credible breakthrough, however, is expected to trigger a rapid reversal, as restored flows would immediately ease the physical supply squeeze that has driven the bulk of the rally from pre-conflict levels.
For Ghana, oil above $100 per barrel poses significant fiscal and household risks. The country imports virtually all its refined petroleum products, meaning sustained elevated crude prices feed directly into pump prices, transport costs, food prices, and the broader cost of living. The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) adjusts pump price floors on a bi-monthly basis, and the next pricing window will reflect the full weight of March’s price surge if crude does not pull back materially before then.
