Ahead of the COP30 climate summit scheduled for November 10 to 21 in Belém, Brazil, the incoming COP30 President André Aranha Corrêa do Lago has issued a warning that the world is approaching decisive climate tipping points requiring urgent international action to keep the 1.5 degree Celsius global warming limit within reach.
In statements addressed to global leaders and released through official letters to parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Corrêa do Lago emphasized that COP30 marks a crossroads where countries must choose between continued delay, which risks climate destabilization, or a coordinated shift toward decisive climate action. The ambassador told the UN General Assembly that respect for science will be a pillar of his leadership.
Corrêa do Lago stated in his first letter as COP30 President that 2024 was confirmed as the warmest year on record globally and the first calendar year that the average global temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above its preindustrial level. January 2025 further marked the warmest month on record. He emphasized that COP30 will be the first to undeniably take place at the epicenter of the climate crisis and the first to be hosted in the Amazon, one of the world’s most vital ecosystems now at risk of reaching an irreversible tipping point according to scientists.
The warning comes alongside the release of the Global Tipping Points Report 2025, presented at the Pre COP30 meeting in Brasília. The report, compiled by an organization called Global Tipping Points made up of 160 researchers from 23 countries, states that coral reefs are crossing a dangerous threshold and experiencing unprecedented dieback in what scientists described as the first tipping point in climate driven ecosystem collapse.
The report indicates that between 2023 and 2025, coral reefs saw their worst bleaching on record and that reefs’ estimated temperature tipping point has been crossed. According to the findings, even under the most optimistic emission scenarios, warm water coral reefs are virtually certain to tip. The researchers also stated that parts of polar ice sheets may have crossed a tipping point that would eventually commit the world to several meters of irreversible sea level rise affecting hundreds of millions.
Additional concerns highlighted in the report include a major ocean current called Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being at risk of collapse, and tipping points related to mountain glacier retreat and the dying back of the Amazon rainforest looming. Antarctic sea ice may have a tipping point that could already be underway, although the report describes this as highly uncertain.
In his foreword to the Global Tipping Points Report, Corrêa do Lago wrote that the time to act is now. He stated that united, we can reverse the dangerous trend toward a sequence of systems collapses in domino effect, and urged nations to build on and support each other to prevent a potentially devastating chain reaction. The COP30 President expressed his vision to transform the narrative of tipping points from fear to hope, stating that we must prevent irreversible harm but equally trigger positive tipping points that can propel societies toward low carbon, resilient development and inclusive prosperity.
The world is currently on track for approximately 3.1 degrees Celsius of warming in this century based on national policies. The UN says greenhouse gas emissions will now see global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius very likely within the next decade.
Despite the stark warnings, Corrêa do Lago emphasized that coordinated international cooperation can help scale positive efforts globally. He highlighted opportunities to trigger system wide changes that accelerate the shift to low carbon development, pointing to renewable energy expansion, digital public infrastructure for climate planning, nature restoration programs, affordable climate finance, and community led adaptation efforts already demonstrating early momentum in some regions.
The COP30 President stressed that the success of the summit will depend on countries’ willingness to align policy actions with scientific guidance and to ensure developing nations receive the financial and technological support required to strengthen adaptation capacity. He emphasized the need to move from endless negotiations to real world implementation, stating that we need a new era beyond negotiating talks as we continue to reinforce the regime.
Corrêa do Lago said the decision to bring COP30 to the Amazon reflects Brazil’s vision and hope for global regeneration toward collective prosperity. The location was chosen specifically so that world leaders must face the climate crisis head on, according to the COP30 President. Belém is located on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, a region threatened by climate change and deforestation. The city itself is incredibly prone to climate impacts, with 40 percent of it below sea level and a majority of people living on streets with no trees.
The conference comes at a critical juncture, marking 10 years since the Paris Agreement and 20 years since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol. COP30 also arrives halfway to 2030, the deadline for many national climate targets. A core part of the Paris Agreement requires parties to make updated pledges known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every five years that lay out how they are going to cut emissions and adapt to climate change.
Parties were asked to submit their NDCs for 2035 by February 2025, but 95 percent of governments missed this deadline. They were then encouraged to submit them by the end of September, but still only 60 parties covering 63 percent of global emissions managed to get theirs in on time.
Among Brazil’s key priorities for COP30, Corrêa do Lago highlighted the defense of multilateralism and respect for science. He identified cooperation among peoples for the progress of humanity as the guiding principle and called for deep, rapid, and sustained cooperation of all countries. The COP30 President emphasized three primary objectives: to reinforce multilateralism, to connect climate action with people’s lives, and to accelerate the implementation of the Paris Agreement inclusively and beyond negotiating rooms.
The COP30 President invited the international community to join Brazil in a global mutirão, a Portuguese term meaning coming together to work on a shared task and support one another, against climate change. He urged governments to arrive in Belém prepared to agree on accelerated implementation commitments and long term cooperation frameworks, emphasizing that the window for preventing further climate destabilization is narrowing but not yet closed.
As of Saturday November 2, fewer than 60 world leaders had confirmed their attendance at this year’s conference, less than in prior years, with around 100 world leaders traveling to Baku in Azerbaijan for COP29 last year. The United States will not feature delegates at the conference after President Donald Trump initiated the process in January 2025 to withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement for the second time.
Among the achievements of the COP 28, COP 29, and COP 30 Presidencies’ Troika under the Roadmap to Mission 1.5 degrees Celsius, Corrêa do Lago highlighted the UAE consensus, breakthrough on loss and damage, and the calls from the first Global Stocktake for halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation by 2030 and accelerating the global energy transition, including by transitioning away from fossil fuels in a just and equitable manner, all in the context of pursuing sustainable development and poverty eradication.
The Financial Stability Board, the international body that monitors and recommends policies for the global financial system, reported in January that climate shocks can threaten the world’s financial stability. COP30 will build on the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) on climate finance adopted at COP29 to push the Baku to Belém roadmap forward. Corrêa do Lago said he looks forward to working with the COP 29 Presidency to scale climate finance for developing countries to 1.3 trillion US dollars annually.
The COP30 President stated that we face a moment of truth, and we can either continue along a path that leads to greater instability or act together to ensure a more secure and resilient future. As the nation of football, Brazil believes we can win by virada, a Portuguese term meaning fighting back to turn the game around when defeat seems almost certain. He expressed hope that together, we can make COP30 the moment we turn the game around and put into practice our political achievements and collective knowledge to change the course of the next decade.
