Bank of Ghana (BoG) Governor Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama opened the 129th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting on Monday by presenting the strongest domestic economic scorecard Ghana has recorded in years, then immediately cautioned that the ongoing Middle East war has introduced external risks capable of reversing those gains before the committee reaches its Wednesday decision.
Speaking at the opening session in Accra, Dr. Asiama said headline inflation fell to 3.3 percent in February, marking the fourteenth consecutive monthly decline and dropping below the Bank’s medium-term target band of eight percent, plus or minus two percentage points, for the first time since the current easing cycle began.
Ghana’s trade surplus reached US$13.66 billion in 2025, driven by gold and cocoa export surges, while gross international reserves have risen to approximately US$14.5 billion, equivalent to 5.8 months of import cover, up from US$13.8 billion at the time of the January meeting. The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) grew 8.4 percent year-on-year at the start of 2026, supported by stronger bank credit, industrial output and household consumption.
Against that backdrop, Dr. Asiama signalled the committee faces its most complex deliberation since beginning its easing cycle. He warned that the escalating Middle East conflict is disrupting key energy and shipping corridors, increasing volatility in global oil markets, and introducing new uncertainty into the trajectory of global inflation, with the primary spillover risk for Ghana being a surge in imported inflation that could necessitate policy tightening and reverse recent financial easing.
“The question before this committee is not whether conditions have improved. They have, significantly and across the board,” Dr. Asiama said. “However, how do we respond to that improvement when the conditions that enabled it are under pressure?”
The Governor also disclosed that the government has announced the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Programme (GANRAP), which targets building gross international reserves to 15 months of import cover by 2028. He acknowledged that an initiative of that scale raises questions about liquidity conditions, the BoG’s balance sheet, and the interaction between reserve accumulation and monetary policy operations — all of which the MPC will need to factor into Wednesday’s decision.
Analysts at Apakan Securities said the recent moderation in inflation was driven by favourable base effects that are beginning to dissipate, but noted that current inflation data still supports the case for a further cut to the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), currently at 15.5 percent following a 250-basis-point reduction at the January meeting. The MPC’s rate decision will be announced at a press conference by Dr. Asiama on Wednesday afternoon, March 18.
