Inflation across Africa is moderating after years of sharp price increases, but food costs remain dangerously elevated in many countries and currency instability continues to threaten the progress made, according to a new assessment from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).
The ECA report notes that inflation has eased across most African economies, supported by exchange rate stabilisation, but says food price inflation remains above 10 percent in many countries, reflecting structural vulnerabilities and climate-related shocks. The UN body warned that sustaining progress on inflation will require a policy mix that combines credible monetary frameworks, targeted fiscal support for vulnerable households, and longer-term investment in food systems and logistics infrastructure.
The easing follows a difficult period in which pandemic-era supply disruptions, rising energy costs and sharp currency depreciations drove consumer prices to multi-year highs across the continent. Central banks in several African economies responded with aggressive interest rate increases, which have helped anchor inflation expectations but have simultaneously raised the cost of borrowing for businesses and governments.
The ECA projects global output to grow at 2.7 percent in 2026, slightly below the 2.8 percent estimated for 2025, and warns that underlying weaknesses persist, with subdued investment and limited fiscal space raising the prospect of a persistently slower global growth path. Africa, however, is expected to outperform that global baseline.
Africa’s economy is projected to expand by 4.3 percent in 2026, up from 4.2 percent in 2025, according to Afreximbank’s January 2026 assessment. The continent’s average debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio remains elevated at about 72 percent, however, underscoring persistent fiscal vulnerabilities that limit governments’ ability to fund social programmes and infrastructure.
The inflation picture varies significantly by region and country. In 35 African countries, inflation is projected to fall below 5 percent in 2025 and 2026, supported by strengthening domestic currencies, improved weather conditions, and easing food and fuel prices. However, double-digit inflation persists in a dozen countries, driven by fiscal and external imbalances, rising public debt and the effects of conflict.
The ECA’s report also underlines that navigating an era of trade realignments, persistent price pressures and climate-related shocks will demand deeper global coordination and decisive collective action, at a time when geopolitical tensions are rising and multilateral cooperation is weakening.
Regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has been highlighted by multiple bodies as a tool for reducing Africa’s exposure to external shocks by deepening intra-African trade, which remains significantly below levels seen in other major economic blocs.
