Africa’s rice and sugar markets are expanding rapidly, but the continent’s persistent reliance on imports raises urgent questions about food security and economic vulnerability, according to the latest Afreximbank Commodity Bulletin. The report paints a picture of growing demand colliding with inadequate local production, a dynamic that’s costing African nations billions annually while leaving them exposed to global price volatility.
The numbers tell a compelling story. Africa’s rice market reached US$24 billion in 2024 and is projected to hit US$29.2 billion by 2030, representing a four percent compound annual growth rate. Yet despite rising output from countries like Nigeria, Mali, and Guinea, imports continue accounting for roughly 40 percent of total rice consumption across the continent. That’s not just a statistic, it’s a massive drain on foreign exchange reserves and a potential threat to food security when global supply chains face disruptions.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to import 18.6 million tonnes of rice in the 2024/25 season, up from 17.3 million tonnes the previous year, making it the world’s largest rice importing region. The continent now accounts for more than one-third of global rice trade, surpassing Southeast Asia in import volumes. By 2033, Africa is anticipated to account for 41 percent of global rice imports, representing more than 26 million tonnes annually.
Africa’s available rice supply reached approximately 39.8 million tonnes in 2022, up from 36.9 million tonnes in 2018, supported by higher production in major producing countries. The bulletin notes these nations are investing in irrigation and improved farming techniques to increase domestic yields, but progress hasn’t kept pace with soaring demand driven by population growth and changing dietary patterns.
Globally, the commodity bulletin reports that rice production reached a record 533.8 million tonnes on a milled basis in the 2024/25 season, an increase of 11.6 million tonnes from the previous year. Bumper harvests in major producing nations including India, Cambodia, and Pakistan drove this growth, while adverse weather conditions reduced output in Bangladesh and Nigeria.
The report notes that rice prices have declined to their lowest levels in eight years, following the lifting of India’s export ban and expanded output in Thailand and Vietnam. Africa imported a record three million tonnes of Thai rice in 2024, a 23.3 percent increase over 2023, with South Africa, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire, Mozambique, and Benin accounting for over 70 percent of imports.
While lower global prices provide temporary relief for African consumers and governments, they also reduce incentives for local production. Afreximbank observed that while Africa’s production has increased, the continent’s self-sufficiency is constrained by inadequate infrastructure, limited access to quality seeds, and climatic variability. It’s a vicious cycle where cheap imports undermine domestic agriculture, which in turn perpetuates import dependence.
Per capita rice consumption in Africa is projected to increase from 25.1 kilograms in 2023 to 28.5 kilograms by 2033, second only to Oceania in growth rate. Rising urban populations, evolving dietary preferences, and regional trade initiatives under the African Continental Free Trade Area are expected to sustain demand for rice across the continent.
The sugar market tells a similar story of opportunity mixed with vulnerability. Global sugar prices have fallen to their lowest levels in more than four years, as strong harvests and changing trade policies reshape the market. According to the bulletin, global sugar production rose to around 186 million tonnes in 2024, up about 1.4 percent compared with 2023.
Top producers Brazil, India, and countries in Southeast Asia recorded strong harvests that offset weather-induced shortfalls elsewhere. Booming corn ethanol production in Brazil has pushed sugar cane processors away from the biofuel market, prompting them to divert a record share of their crop to making sweetener, contributing to the global price decline.
The report highlights that Africa’s sugar output has remained relatively flat, accounting for about six percent of global production. However, the bulletin notes this share could increase with planned expansions in Egypt, Kenya, and Morocco. Producers on the continent are focusing on capacity expansion, efficiency improvements, and market diversification to sustain profitability amid low global prices.
Afreximbank attributes the price decline to abundant supply and the resumption of sugar exports by India after a temporary suspension. The World Bank expects sugar prices to decrease by three percent in 2024 and eight percent in 2025 as supplies from India and Thailand ease.
Despite weaker international prices, the report notes that Africa’s rising domestic demand and investments in production efficiency could support medium-term sector growth. The bulletin outlines opportunities in industrial and non-food uses of sugar, including bioethanol, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics, as producers seek to diversify income streams.
What’s particularly striking about these commodity trends is how they reflect broader challenges facing African agriculture. The continent has ample arable land, abundant water resources in many regions, and a young, growing population that could power agricultural transformation. Yet decades of underinvestment in rural infrastructure, research and development, and farmer support systems have left Africa dependent on global markets for basic staples.
Africa produces around 60 percent of the rice the continent consumes, relying heavily on rice imports to fulfill the rest of domestic demand. Over the past decade, rice agricultural area increased nearly 40 percent, while average yield remained stagnant. That productivity gap represents the heart of the problem. Without substantial increases in yields through better farming practices, improved seeds, and reliable irrigation, meeting future demand will require even larger imports or significant land conversion.
The African Continental Free Trade Area offers potential pathways to address some of these challenges through regional coordination on agricultural policy, shared infrastructure investments, and cross-border trade that could reduce dependence on intercontinental imports. But regional trade alone won’t solve the productivity problem. Countries need to invest seriously in agricultural research, extension services, rural roads, storage facilities, and market systems.
The top African rice importers, Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal, accounting for 30 percent of African imports, have accelerated their purchases to build well-stocked reserves. Nigeria is expected to almost double its rice imports by 2033 to four million tonnes, a volume almost equivalent to China’s projected imports. Those numbers should set off alarm bells for policymakers concerned about food security and foreign exchange stability.
There’s an irony in the current situation. Low global prices for rice and sugar should theoretically benefit African consumers by making food more affordable. But they also discourage local production by making it difficult for African farmers to compete with subsidized or highly efficient foreign producers. When global prices inevitably rise again, as commodity cycles always ensure they will, African countries will face both higher import bills and diminished domestic production capacity.
The Afreximbank report doesn’t explicitly advocate for protectionist policies or import substitution strategies, but it does highlight the vulnerability inherent in Africa’s current agricultural trade patterns. The continent’s food import bill continues climbing even as local farmers struggle to access credit, inputs, and markets. Whether African policymakers can navigate this challenge, supporting domestic agriculture while avoiding the pitfalls of protectionism that often harm consumers, remains one of the continent’s most pressing economic questions.
For now, Africa’s rice and sugar markets will keep expanding, driven by population growth and urbanization. But unless production catches up with consumption, the continent’s food security will remain uncomfortably dependent on the whims of global markets, trade policies in distant capitals, and weather patterns halfway around the world.
