The African Export-Import Bank has launched its inaugural Commodity Bulletin, offering a detailed analysis of how oil, natural gas, gold, copper, sugar, and rice are shaping Africa’s trade outlook, fiscal stability, and industrialization prospects.
The report arrives at a pivotal moment when the continent’s total merchandise trade surged by 13.9 percent in 2024 to reach US$1.5 trillion, yet Africa still accounts for only 3.3 percent of global exports.
The bulletin forms part of Afreximbank’s effort to provide data-driven insights for policymakers and investors as Africa navigates shifting global supply chains, energy transitions, and market volatility. More importantly, it aligns with the bank’s mission to drive structural transformation through industrialization and export diversification under the African Union’s Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want.
“Commodities should become engines of inclusive growth rather than sources of vulnerability,” the bank noted, emphasizing the need for value addition and regional integration across Africa’s resource sectors. It’s a message that resonates particularly strongly given Africa’s historical pattern of exporting raw materials only to import finished products at premium prices.
According to the report, global oil demand slowed to below one million barrels per day in 2024, less than half the 2023 pace, amid weaker economic growth and accelerating energy transition policies. Despite subdued demand, African crude exports, particularly from Nigeria and Algeria, rose to multi-year highs. However, Afreximbank warned that domestic bottlenecks such as poor refining capacity, aging pipelines, and limited cross-border energy integration continue constraining Africa’s competitiveness in oil markets.
Natural gas markets tell a strikingly different story. Global consumption expanded sharply, rising by over 100 billion cubic meters in 2024. Africa contributed 8.5 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, led by Algeria, Nigeria, and Egypt, even as output fell slightly due to aging fields and project delays. New LNG projects in Mozambique, Senegal, and Mauritania are expected to reinforce the continent’s position as a flexible supplier, potentially transforming these nations’ economies if managed properly.
Gold emerged as 2024’s star performer among commodities tracked in the bulletin. Prices surged over 25 percent in 2024, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions that pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. Africa accounted for roughly 30 percent of global gold output, with Ghana and Mali leading production.
The report highlighted Ghana’s new Royal Ghana Gold Refinery, the country’s first commercial refinery and Africa’s second largest, as a milestone toward increasing local value addition in the gold industry. This development represents exactly the kind of transformation Afreximbank advocates, moving beyond raw commodity exports to capture more value domestically.
Copper markets remained volatile but underpinned by steady demand from renewable energy and electric vehicle manufacturing. While Africa, especially the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, plays a critical role in global supply, the bank cautioned that chronic power shortages and limited refining infrastructure are preventing full value capture. It’s frustrating when you consider that the continent sits on massive copper reserves needed for the global energy transition yet can’t fully monetize them due to infrastructure constraints.
On soft commodities, global sugar production rose to 186 million tonnes in 2024, easing prices to three-year lows. African output, steady at about six percent of global production, is expected to expand with capacity increases in Egypt, Kenya, and Morocco. Meanwhile, global rice production reached a record 533.8 million tonnes on a milled basis, with prices falling to their lowest levels in eight years.
Africa’s rice market, valued at US$24 billion in 2024, is projected to reach US$29.2 billion by 2030, though the continent still imports about 40 percent of its consumption. That dependency on imports represents both a vulnerability and an opportunity, if African countries can boost domestic production, they’ll improve food security while reducing foreign exchange pressures.
Africa’s total merchandise trade recovered sharply in 2024, surging 13.9 percent to US$1.5 trillion following a 5.4 percent contraction in 2023. However, the continent still makes up only 3.3 percent of global exports, a sobering reminder that despite the recovery, Africa remains marginal in global trade flows. Intra-African trade grew by 12.4 percent to reach US$220.3 billion, showing tangible benefits of African Continental Free Trade Area implementation.
The broader context makes Afreximbank’s commodity bulletin particularly relevant. While the global economy slowed to 3.3 percent growth in 2024 and is expected to dip further in 2025, Africa held steady with 3.2 percent growth, helped by strong commodity prices and better public finances. Still, growth remains uneven across the continent, with resource-rich nations performing better than those without significant commodity exports.
Afreximbank reaffirmed its commitment to helping African economies capture greater value from commodities through initiatives like the Africa Commodities Initiative and the African Textile Renaissance Plan. These programs aim to enhance local processing in mining, energy, and agro-industrial sectors while promoting intra-African trade.
The question facing Africa now is whether it can translate commodity abundance into sustained economic transformation. The continent has attempted this before with limited success, often falling victim to the “resource curse” where natural wealth fails to generate broad-based prosperity. What’s different this time, according to Afreximbank, is the institutional architecture now in place, from AfCFTA to the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, designed to facilitate intra-continental trade and reduce reliance on foreign currencies.
Dr. George Elombi, who became Afreximbank’s fourth president in October 2025, has set ambitious targets including growing the bank’s balance sheet to $250 billion within 10 years. He emphasized that Africa’s trade remains too dependent on commodity exports and that must change through processing and production. Afreximbank will launch a new financing window specifically for projects that process raw minerals into semi-finished or finished goods.
The commodity bulletin’s launch comes as Afreximbank reported solid first-half 2025 results, with on-balance sheet and contingent items closing at US$42.5 billion, representing 6.0 percent growth. The bank’s liquidity ratio improved significantly to 22 percent from 13 percent, as cash and cash equivalents held amounted to US$8.3 billion.
However, significant challenges remain. Africa still needs better access to trade finance to bridge the gap estimated at about US$100 billion. Without adequate financing, African businesses struggle to import inputs, fulfill export contracts, or scale operations, perpetuating the continent’s marginal position in global trade.
The report’s timing is strategic. As global supply chains undergo restructuring and major economies pursue friend-shoring strategies, Africa has an opportunity to position itself as a reliable supplier of critical minerals and agricultural commodities. But seizing this opportunity requires overcoming infrastructure deficits, improving governance in resource sectors, and building processing capacity domestically.
For commodities like copper and rare earth minerals essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy, Africa holds significant reserves but lacks the refining and manufacturing capabilities to move up the value chain. Chinese companies have made substantial investments in African mining over the past two decades, often shipping raw ores back to China for processing. Whether Africa can retain more of this value locally depends partly on financing from institutions like Afreximbank and partly on policy choices by African governments.
The agricultural commodities picture presents similar dynamics. Africa imports billions of dollars in rice and sugar annually despite having suitable land and climate for production. Boosting domestic output requires investments in irrigation, improved seeds, extension services, and post-harvest infrastructure. The returns could be substantial, not just in foreign exchange savings but in rural job creation and food security improvements.
Oil and gas developments deserve particular attention given the global energy transition. While demand for crude oil is projected to peak within the next decade, natural gas demand continues growing as countries seek cleaner alternatives to coal. Africa’s LNG projects in Mozambique, Senegal, and Mauritania position these nations to benefit from this transition, but only if projects come online as scheduled and revenues are managed transparently.
“Africa must move beyond its role as a primary exporter to become a globally competitive hub for value-added production and trade,” the report concluded. Whether this vision becomes reality depends on choices made now, choices about investment priorities, trade policies, currency arrangements, and industrial strategies.
The commodity bulletin serves as both a snapshot of current conditions and a roadmap for transformation. Africa’s commodity wealth remains immense, the continent produces significant shares of global gold, copper, cocoa, and numerous other resources. The challenge isn’t availability of resources but rather capturing their full economic value for African populations rather than simply extracting and exporting them in raw form.
As global economic uncertainties deepen and geopolitical tensions reshape trade flows, Africa’s commodity strategy will significantly influence whether the continent finally achieves the structural transformation it has pursued for decades. The tools and institutions are increasingly in place, from AfCFTA to strengthened development finance institutions like Afreximbank. What remains to be seen is whether political will and implementation capacity can match the ambition.
