Absa Bank projects the Ghana cedi will settle at GH₵14.00 per US dollar by the end of 2025, following a sharp 19% appreciation to GH₵13.05 in recent months.
The forecast, detailed in Absa’s May 2025 currency report, attributes the cedi’s rally to surging global commodity prices, particularly gold and cocoa, which bolstered Ghana’s export revenues and investor confidence.
“We expect a partial reversal to GH₵14.00/USD to align the real effective exchange rate with purchasing power parity, ensuring export competitiveness and sustained financial inflows,” the report stated. Absa noted the cedi had held steady around GH₵15.50/USD for two months before aggressive gains driven by strong export receipts and increased foreign exchange interventions by the Bank of Ghana (BoG).
The central bank’s ability to convert export earnings into reserves enabled it to supply more hard currency to the interbank market, driving the exchange rate from GH₵15.50 to GH₵13.05 within a month. However, Absa cautioned that the rally was excessive, stating, “At these levels, the cedi has strengthened too sharply.”
While favorable macroeconomic conditions including high gold prices, rising cocoa output, and improved reserves support the currency, Absa anticipates a balanced trajectory to sustain export advantages and align with monetary policy goals. The forecast underscores Ghana’s reliance on commodity-driven growth and the BoG’s role in stabilizing forex markets amid global volatility.
